Ripping 4 does win more backgammons, but according to the rollout, it's not enough to justify the increased risk of losing. But see the variant, where all I've done is changed the match score.
       
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 121 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 26
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bFBB---a-------a-abbbbb--:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 4/Off(2) | eq: +1.635 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 90.59% (G:75.40% B:10.61%)
9.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.631...+1.639) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19.4 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 2/Off(4) | eq: +1.524 (-0.111) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 85.47% (G:68.26% B:19.78%)
14.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.519...+1.529) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30.2 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 121 | 3 point match
Crawford | pip: 26
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bFBB---a-------a-abbbbb--:0:0:1:22:0:2:1:3:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 2/Off(4) | eq: +1.014 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 91.13% (G:81.41% B:7.38%)
8.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.011...+1.017) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11.5 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 4/Off(2) | eq: +0.958 (-0.055) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 93.74% (G:84.92% B:2.04%)
6.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.956...+0.961) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7.9 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2