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PotD 03-31-24 - H, P, or @? -- T4 Variant with Rollouts

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 3 May 2024, at 12:07 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 03-31-24 - H, P, or @? - XGR++ (Stick)

This is not up to my R4 standards, but with a few adjustments of Stick's original position and changing the roll to 42, it seems likely that this is a T4 (technical four-score position) -- having a different best play at each of the four main scores. Rollouts below.

Nack

Money





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----DBCa--cD-d-b-d--A-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 42

1.Rollout124/22 13/9* eq: +0.2237
Player:
Opponent:		54.67% (G:16.12% B:0.61%)
45.33% (G:9.86% B:0.41%)		Conf.: ±0.0048 (+0.2189...+0.2284) - [94.4%]
Duration: 12 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout113/9* 9/7eq: +0.2182 (-0.0054)
Player:
Opponent:		54.80% (G:15.43% B:0.65%)
45.20% (G:10.01% B:0.39%)		Conf.: ±0.0047 (+0.2135...+0.2230) - [5.6%]
Duration: 12 hours 02 minutes
3.Rollout213/11 13/9* eq: +0.1922 (-0.0315)
Player:
Opponent:		53.86% (G:17.37% B:0.91%)
46.14% (G:11.73% B:0.65%)		Conf.: ±0.0179 (+0.1743...+0.2101) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
4.Rollout224/20 22/20eq: +0.1793 (-0.0443)
Player:
Opponent:		53.56% (G:11.80% B:0.30%)
46.44% (G:4.89% B:0.17%)		Conf.: ±0.0134 (+0.1659...+0.1928) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
5.Rollout28/4 6/4eq: +0.1586 (-0.0651)
Player:
Opponent:		52.77% (G:15.76% B:0.48%)
47.23% (G:9.47% B:0.39%)		Conf.: ±0.0210 (+0.1376...+0.1795) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
6.Rollout222/20 13/9* eq: +0.1441 (-0.0796)
Player:
Opponent:		52.80% (G:15.50% B:0.74%)
47.20% (G:11.04% B:0.43%)		Conf.: ±0.0178 (+0.1263...+0.1619) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
7.Rollout213/9* 8/6eq: +0.1092 (-0.1144)
Player:
Opponent:		51.90% (G:16.22% B:0.68%)
48.10% (G:11.65% B:0.51%)		Conf.: ±0.0156 (+0.0937...+0.1248) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62039101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62039101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


DMP





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
1 point match
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----DBCa--cD-d-b-d--A-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 42

1.Rollout113/9* 9/7eq: +0.0886
Player:
Opponent:		54.43% (G:18.82% B:2.38%)
45.57% (G:10.47% B:1.15%)		Conf.: ±0.0014 (+0.0872...+0.0899) - [61.1%]
Duration: 12 hours 46 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 13/9* eq: +0.0883 (-0.0003)
Player:
Opponent:		54.41% (G:18.97% B:2.44%)
45.59% (G:11.49% B:1.24%)		Conf.: ±0.0015 (+0.0868...+0.0897) - [38.8%]
Duration: 12 hours 59 minutes
3.Rollout213/11 13/9* eq: +0.0778 (-0.0108)
Player:
Opponent:		53.89% (G:19.78% B:2.58%)
46.11% (G:14.14% B:2.27%)		Conf.: ±0.0070 (+0.0708...+0.0848) - [0.1%]
Duration: 30 minutes 11 seconds
4.Rollout224/20 22/20eq: +0.0685 (-0.0201)
Player:
Opponent:		53.43% (G:12.27% B:1.05%)
46.57% (G:5.52% B:0.29%)		Conf.: ±0.0056 (+0.0629...+0.0741) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 59 seconds
5.Rollout28/4 6/4eq: +0.0544 (-0.0342)
Player:
Opponent:		52.72% (G:16.47% B:2.41%)
47.28% (G:10.88% B:0.88%)		Conf.: ±0.0063 (+0.0481...+0.0606) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 18 seconds
6.Rollout222/20 13/9* eq: +0.0513 (-0.0373)
Player:
Opponent:		52.56% (G:19.01% B:2.62%)
47.44% (G:11.92% B:1.71%)		Conf.: ±0.0061 (+0.0452...+0.0574) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 40 seconds
1 25920 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42131781
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42131781
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Gammon Save





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 160
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----DBCa--cD-d-b-d--A-A-:0:0:1:42:1:0:1:2:10
Blue to play 42

1.Rollout124/20 22/20eq: -0.0220
Player:
Opponent:		53.73% (G:13.66% B:1.26%)
46.27% (G:4.83% B:0.43%)		Conf.: ±0.0069 (-0.0289...-0.0150) - [100.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout124/22 13/9* eq: -0.1095 (-0.0875)
Player:
Opponent:		54.28% (G:19.82% B:2.78%)
45.72% (G:9.76% B:0.89%)		Conf.: ±0.0111 (-0.1205...-0.0984) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 23 seconds
3.Rollout113/9* 9/7eq: -0.1215 (-0.0995)
Player:
Opponent:		54.20% (G:20.07% B:2.39%)
45.80% (G:10.28% B:0.91%)		Conf.: ±0.0081 (-0.1297...-0.1134) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 31 seconds
4.Rollout18/4 6/4eq: -0.1396 (-0.1176)
Player:
Opponent:		52.86% (G:17.30% B:1.74%)
47.14% (G:9.84% B:0.85%)		Conf.: ±0.0074 (-0.1470...-0.1322) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 39 seconds
5.Rollout122/20 13/9* eq: -0.1691 (-0.1471)
Player:
Opponent:		52.30% (G:18.46% B:2.09%)
47.70% (G:10.76% B:0.88%)		Conf.: ±0.0082 (-0.1773...-0.1609) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 13 seconds
6.Rollout113/11 13/9* eq: -0.1760 (-0.1540)
Player:
Opponent:		52.88% (G:21.69% B:3.12%)
47.12% (G:11.68% B:1.18%)		Conf.: ±0.0090 (-0.1850...-0.1670) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 32 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 33488836
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Gammon Go





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 159
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 160
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----DBCa--cD-d-b-d--A-A-:0:0:1:42:0:1:1:2:10
Blue to play 42

1.Rollout113/11 13/9* eq: +0.4129
Player:
Opponent:		54.81% (G:15.84% B:2.01%)
45.19% (G:13.27% B:1.75%)		Conf.: ±0.0026 (+0.4103...+0.4155) - [85.2%]
Duration: 9 hours 03 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 13/9* eq: +0.4110 (-0.0019)
Player:
Opponent:		55.25% (G:15.30% B:1.24%)
44.75% (G:11.26% B:1.17%)		Conf.: ±0.0024 (+0.4086...+0.4135) - [14.7%]
Duration: 8 hours 27 minutes
3.Rollout213/9* 9/7eq: +0.4054 (-0.0075)
Player:
Opponent:		55.54% (G:14.73% B:1.34%)
44.46% (G:10.54% B:1.20%)		Conf.: ±0.0041 (+0.4013...+0.4096) - [0.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 10 minutes
4.Rollout38/4 6/4eq: +0.3934 (-0.0195)
Player:
Opponent:		52.64% (G:17.03% B:1.00%)
47.36% (G:12.01% B:1.35%)		Conf.: ±0.0084 (+0.3850...+0.4018) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 20 seconds
5.Rollout322/20 13/9* eq: +0.3647 (-0.0482)
Player:
Opponent:		53.74% (G:14.50% B:1.58%)
46.26% (G:12.30% B:1.57%)		Conf.: ±0.0080 (+0.3567...+0.3727) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 13 seconds
6.Rollout313/9* 8/6eq: +0.3562 (-0.0567)
Player:
Opponent:		52.95% (G:14.86% B:1.34%)
47.05% (G:12.61% B:1.64%)		Conf.: ±0.0089 (+0.3473...+0.3651) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 56 seconds
7.Rollout324/20 22/20eq: +0.3133 (-0.0996)
Player:
Opponent:		53.28% (G:12.39% B:0.61%)
46.72% (G:6.73% B:0.67%)		Conf.: ±0.0072 (+0.3061...+0.3205) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 10 seconds
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9280116
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9280116
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9280116
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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