Assuming that the XGR++ evaluation is reliable...
Bar/20 5/2 is best even if Blue has 12 (instead of 4) checkers on his 3pt.
      
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 46 | | 1 point match | pip: 71
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---L-B---a--a----------diA:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | Bar/20 5/2 | eq: -0.460 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 26.98% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
73.02% (G:0.38% B:0.00%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | Bar/17 | eq: -0.495 (-0.034) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25.27% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
74.73% (G:0.09% B:0.00%) | |
|
Take as many checkers off the 3pt as you like and put them into the bearoff tray, and bar/20 5/2 is still best, with the sole exception below.
Nack
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 46 | | 1 point match | pip: 35
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-----B---a--a----------diA:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | Bar/17 | eq: +0.984 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 99.21% (G:22.04% B:1.17%)
0.79% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | Bar/20 5/2 | eq: +0.982 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 99.08% (G:22.70% B:1.00%)
0.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | |
|