Rollout + variant

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Rollout + variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 8 May 2024, at 2:23 a.m.

In Response To: Did you like Peever's "Which point to break?" Here's another! (mickd)

First you have to see that Blue has the option of switching his main holding point from the 5pt to the bar point, and then you have to judge which point gives you better timing for getting a shot. The variant below illustrates the delicacy of the decision.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 112

Unlimited Game

pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---CBBB-----cB--cb-dB--cB-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 20/18 eq: -0.390
Player:
Opponent: 41.14% (G:9.88% B:0.31%)
58.86% (G:18.04% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.403...-0.376) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 47 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/5 eq: -0.439 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent: 39.54% (G:8.24% B:0.23%)
60.46% (G:14.10% B:0.91%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.452...-0.426) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 21 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/7 eq: -0.454 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent: 39.19% (G:7.90% B:0.20%)
60.81% (G:12.34% B:0.76%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.466...-0.442) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 33 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 24/22 13/7 eq: -0.474 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent: 38.89% (G:9.09% B:0.28%)
61.11% (G:16.74% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.487...-0.461) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 36 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 13/7 3/1 eq: -0.502 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent: 38.03% (G:7.47% B:0.16%)
61.97% (G:14.38% B:1.01%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.515...-0.489) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 06 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Variant:

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 107

Unlimited Game

pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---CBBB-----bB--cc-dB--cB-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/7 eq: -0.526
Player:
Opponent: 37.26% (G:6.36% B:0.18%)
62.74% (G:13.02% B:0.77%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.539...-0.513) - [50.4%]
Duration: 3 minutes 48 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/5 eq: -0.526 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent: 37.82% (G:6.54% B:0.18%)
62.18% (G:14.48% B:0.97%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.539...-0.513) - [49.6%]
Duration: 3 minutes 55 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 24/18 20/18 eq: -0.574 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent: 36.45% (G:7.43% B:0.25%)
63.55% (G:18.93% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.587...-0.561) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release