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These were not the droids...er...dice I was looking for

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Wednesday, 8 May 2024, at 12:30 p.m.

In Response To: These were not the droids...er...dice I was looking for (Timothy Chow)

Over the board, I would never have considered making the 1pt. However, QF makes me consider 7/1* 5/1*.

Leading by 2 pips after all PvP plays, Blue is a dog to reach his destination if he remains on board the PvP train. Blue's PvP plays (13/7 11/7, 13/9 13/7, 13/9 11/5) are far from ideal and do not rate to extend Blue's prime at the same pace that White will extend hers.

After Blue makes the 1pt on White's face, if White rolls one of the four hitting 7s, it looks like Blue has 24 returns from the bar: 11 21 31 41 34 24 22 44 16 26 36 45 46 33. In an exchange of hits, stronger-board Blue will have the advantage. Math theorists (who ignore the well-established fact that some players fan more frequently than others) will tell you that White's fanning probability is exactly 2.25 times Blue's.

Not sure, but my guess is to point on his face. If White makes the serious mistake of fanning, it looks like Blue can make an inner point or roll a hitting-while-escaping 8 with 32 rolls (all but 51 61, which remake the 7pt).

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