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Two more Variants, with Rollouts

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 8 May 2024, at 10:25 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout + variant (Timothy Chow)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 112
Unlimited Game
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---CBBB-----cB--cb-dB--cB-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 62

1.Rollout124/18 20/18eq: -0.390
Player:
Opponent:
41.14% (G:9.88% B:0.31%)
58.86% (G:18.04% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ą 0.013 (-0.403...-0.376) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout113/5eq: -0.439 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
39.54% (G:8.24% B:0.23%)
60.46% (G:14.10% B:0.91%)
Conf.: ą 0.013 (-0.452...-0.426) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 21 seconds
3.Rollout113/11 13/7eq: -0.454 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
39.19% (G:7.90% B:0.20%)
60.81% (G:12.34% B:0.76%)
Conf.: ą 0.012 (-0.466...-0.442) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 33 seconds
4.Rollout124/22 13/7eq: -0.474 (-0.084)
Player:
Opponent:
38.89% (G:9.09% B:0.28%)
61.11% (G:16.74% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ą 0.013 (-0.487...-0.461) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 36 seconds
5.Rollout113/7 3/1eq: -0.502 (-0.112)
Player:
Opponent:
38.03% (G:7.47% B:0.16%)
61.97% (G:14.38% B:1.01%)
Conf.: ą 0.013 (-0.515...-0.489) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 06 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Tim's rollout of his original position. Anchoring on the 18pt is easily best.

Below are two variants. The first is just 1 pip different, with Blue's 2pt slotted. This change makes it a tied decision.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 112
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABBBB-----cB--cb-dB--cB-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 62

1.Rollout113/11 13/7eq: -0.4275
Player:
Opponent:
40.05% (G:8.37% B:0.20%)
59.95% (G:12.17% B:0.72%)
Conf.: ą0.0039 (-0.4314...-0.4237) - [50.1%]
Duration: 4 hours 34 minutes
2.Rollout124/18 20/18eq: -0.4275
Player:
Opponent:
41.28% (G:10.15% B:0.31%)
58.72% (G:20.13% B:0.65%)
Conf.: ą0.0041 (-0.4316...-0.4235) - [49.9%]
Duration: 5 hours 09 minutes
3.Rollout213/5eq: -0.4358 (-0.0082)
Player:
Opponent:
40.03% (G:8.37% B:0.21%)
59.97% (G:14.17% B:0.95%)
Conf.: ą0.0043 (-0.4401...-0.4314) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 56 minutes
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 43316907
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 43316907
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

In the second variant (below), compared to the original position, White has her 11pt instead of her 9pt. This time, Blue's anchoring on his 18pt is sixth best and a whopper.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 118
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---CBBB-----cBc--b-dB--cB-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 62

1.Rollout113/11 13/7eq: -0.187
Player:
Opponent:
45.73% (G:11.30% B:0.30%)
54.27% (G:9.77% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ą 0.008 (-0.195...-0.179) - [99.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes
2.Rollout113/5eq: -0.204 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:
45.24% (G:11.24% B:0.28%)
54.76% (G:10.41% B:0.51%)
Conf.: ą 0.008 (-0.212...-0.196) - [0.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes
3.Rollout224/16eq: -0.222 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
44.46% (G:11.12% B:0.31%)
55.54% (G:10.14% B:0.26%)
Conf.: ą 0.014 (-0.236...-0.207) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 26 seconds
4.Rollout213/7 3/1eq: -0.222 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
44.61% (G:10.96% B:0.21%)
55.39% (G:10.75% B:0.57%)
Conf.: ą 0.014 (-0.237...-0.208) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 58 seconds
5.Rollout224/22 13/7eq: -0.253 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
44.03% (G:10.99% B:0.32%)
55.97% (G:12.68% B:0.38%)
Conf.: ą 0.014 (-0.267...-0.239) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 40 seconds
6.Rollout224/18 20/18eq: -0.289 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:
43.81% (G:11.22% B:0.35%)
56.19% (G:15.84% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ą 0.013 (-0.302...-0.276) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 55 seconds
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32047511
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32047511
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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