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Analysis

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 13 May 2024, at 2:58 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout + variant (Timothy Chow)

I think this process is a good case study and will explain what you're seeing:

1) Pretend that double-hitting is illegal. It doesn't get XGR++ evaluated.
2) Set up and evaluate four situations: roll 51 vs 24 22, roll 51 vs 23 22, roll 52 vs 24 22, roll 52 vs 23 22.
3) Move back a 7pt spare to the 8pt and evaluate the new set of four situations the same way.

Notes:

When White has a 24 blot, hit (8/3*).
When White has a 23pt blot, do not hit when it strips the 8pt.

A greater case can be made for hitting with 52, because with 51: 11/6 is required in order to get a diversified 5pt spare (with 6/5). Nevertheless, with the extra 8pt spare against the 23pt, it is still better (by .051) not to hit with 51.

Apart from possible strippage of the 8pt 6-away, there is less of a case for hitting against the 23pt because: (a) White's enter-anchoring on the 23pt will win more games than enter-anchoring on the 24pt. And (b) Duplication of 41 and 31. The combination of "a" and "b" means that even with the 8pt spare and a roll of 52, hitting is an error (albeit only -.008) against the 23pt.

Nack

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