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who is favoured by contact?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Friday, 17 May 2024, at 12:43 a.m.

In Response To: who is favoured by contact? (rambiz)

Imagine that the cube was still centered. If you run off the anchor turning it into a race, white is up by 9 pips. After adjusting the pipcount to account for the open points on the 5 and 6 and spare on the deuce she's up by 6. That's right around the point of last take or ~22%.

If you maintain contact, I count 8 blotting rolls but there are also a bunch of pick and pass rolls. I'm not going to try to enumerate them or make a guess as to how much this counteracts the addition equity from shots. I will say that if I were playing white I would much rather see you run than stick around. By Simborg's law, staying should annoy your opponent more so do that. Most of the time after staying neither side hits and we're back to the race. So I look at staying as increasing blue's equity, so the short answer to your question is that maintaining contact favors blue. I think...

20/8 14/2.

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