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who is favoured by contact?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 17 May 2024, at 1:02 a.m.

In Response To: who is favoured by contact? (rambiz)

I don't fare so well in such positions either, but I think I know the general approach. First, if we run, then we'll be trailing in the pip count by 72 to 63, but the opponent has more wastage. With a good racing formula, one should be able to estimate winning chances pretty well. I haven't actually memorized a great racing formula for this sort of situation, but I'd guess our chances are around 35% if we run.

If we stay, then to analyze the situation, we need to go through all of White's rolls. As a first approximation, I'd treat pick-and-pass and pointing rolls as wins for White. That's all 5's except 65, as well as 42 32 22 21 11. I'd also count 66 and 44 as wins. That already pushes us past the 50% mark. Without analyzing the remaining rolls in detail, I don't think we win enough to make staying back worth it. White may leave a shot but then we have to hit it, or else win the race after we wasted some pips with our 66.

I would run 20/8(2).

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