I was playing White against XG (3-ply) here. The situation looked pretty grim to me and I passed, but the rollout says it's an easy take.
Incidentally, although I posted this as an unlimited game, the actual score when I played this game was 6-away/6-away. On Blue's previous turn, as you can see below, XG 3-ply opted to play 13/7 instead of 22/16. If XG had played 22/16 then the take/pass decision would have been dramatically different (and the doubling decision would have been borderline too good, according to the rollout).
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 167 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 129
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-cBBBBBA----ab-A-cbbAbA--A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 62.14% (G:29.83% B:3.85%) | 61.89% (G:30.05% B:4.10%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 37.86% (G:9.14% B:0.50%) | 38.11% (G:9.27% B:0.51%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.483 | +0.963 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.586 (-0.060) | ±0.018 (+0.567..+0.604) |
| Double/Take: | +0.645 | ±0.029 (+0.616..+0.674) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.355) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 8 minutes 11 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Earlier in the game:
 
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 171 | | 7 point match | pip: 123
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=baBBBBB-----cB-A-cbbAbA---:0:0:1:24:1:1:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 24 |
| 1. | 3-ply | 13/7 | eq: +1.431 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 81.97% (G:58.72% B:4.02%)
18.03% (G:1.88% B:0.08%) | |
|
| 2. | 3-ply | 22/16 | eq: +1.430 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 82.83% (G:57.07% B:4.21%)
17.17% (G:1.26% B:0.07%) | |
|
| 3. | 3-ply | 22/20 15/11 | eq: +1.429 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 82.78% (G:57.03% B:4.25%)
17.22% (G:1.30% B:0.05%) | |
|
| 4. | 3-ply | 20/16 15/13 | eq: +1.414 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 82.23% (G:56.55% B:4.38%)
17.77% (G:1.44% B:0.06%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Cube decision after 22/16 and snake eyes from the bar:
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 167 | | 7 point match | pip: 122
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-cBBBBB-----cB-AAcb-bb---A:0:0:1:00:1:1:0:7:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 74.07% (G:30.40% B:3.45%) | 73.32% (G:31.60% B:3.53%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 25.93% (G:4.23% B:0.22%) | 26.68% (G:4.26% B:0.22%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.816 | +1.749 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.984 (-0.016) | ±0.010 (+0.975..+0.994) |
| Double/Take: | +1.505 (+0.505) | ±0.021 (+1.484..+1.526) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 99.9% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 9 minutes 51 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2