[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Four different cube actions

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 18 May 2024, at 10:56 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout + OTB (Timothy Chow)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167
Unlimited Game
pip: 129
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cBBBBBA----ab-A-cbbAbA--A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
DOUBLE, TAKE

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.14% (G:29.83% B:3.85%) 61.89% (G:30.05% B:4.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.86% (G:9.14% B:0.50%) 38.11% (G:9.27% B:0.51%)
Cubeless Equities +0.483 +0.963
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.586 (-0.060)±0.018 (+0.567..+0.604)
Double/Take:+0.645±0.029 (+0.616..+0.674)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.355)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 11 seconds

Tim's rollout of his original position is above. Clear DOUBLE, TAKE.

My Variant 1 below, a 2-pip change from the original, is a borderline NO DOUBLE.

Variant 2 below, a 1-pip change from the original, is a borderline PASS.

Variant 3 below, a 1-pip change from the original, is borderline TOO GOOD.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 167
7 point match
pip: 131
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cBBBBBA----ab-A-cbb-bB--A:0:0:1:00:1:1:0:7:10
NO DOUBLE

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.65% (G:27.97% B:3.68%) 57.53% (G:28.15% B:3.73%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.35% (G:10.38% B:0.55%) 42.47% (G:10.42% B:0.83%)
Cubeless Equities +0.388 +0.830
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.454±0.014 (+0.441..+0.468)
Double/Take:+0.443 (-0.011)±0.020 (+0.424..+0.463)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.546)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.0%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32047511
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:81.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes
White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 167
7 point match
pip: 130
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cBBBBB-A---ab-A-cbbAbA--A:0:0:1:00:1:1:0:7:10
DOUBLE, PASS

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.41% (G:30.93% B:4.20%) 65.19% (G:31.20% B:4.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.59% (G:7.29% B:0.45%) 34.81% (G:7.21% B:0.81%)
Cubeless Equities +0.619 +1.319
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.777 (-0.223)±0.011 (+0.766..+0.788)
Double/Take:+1.001 (+0.001)±0.017 (+0.983..+1.018)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 97990481
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:53.1%
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes
White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 167
7 point match
pip: 128
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cBBBBBA----ab-A-cbbAbA-A-:0:0:1:00:1:1:0:7:10
TOO GOOD

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.82% (G:38.43% B:5.51%) 70.76% (G:39.26% B:5.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.18% (G:4.98% B:0.27%) 29.24% (G:4.99% B:0.47%)
Cubeless Equities +0.856 +1.848
Cubeful Equities
No double:+1.000±0.010 (+0.990..+1.011)
Double/Take:+1.578 (+0.578)±0.016 (+1.562..+1.594)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (0.000)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 0.0%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908913
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:51.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 19 minutes 06 seconds

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.