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It's gammon go... (Opp blot vs no Opp blot)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 18 May 2024, at 11:27 p.m.

In Response To: It's gammon go... (ah_clem)





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 95
5 point match
pip: 50
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bCBCCBB------------accbbb-:1:-1:1:61:1:4:0:5:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout16/Off 1/Offeq: +1.770
Player:
Opponent:
91.33% (G:44.99% B:2.08%)
8.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.767...+1.774) - [95.9%]
Duration: 0.2 second
2.Rollout16/5 6/Offeq: +1.766 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
97.80% (G:38.61% B:1.46%)
2.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.763...+1.769) - [4.1%]
Duration: 0.1 second
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908913
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

I think the decision of 6/off 6/5 vs 6/off 1/off hinges much more on whether the opponent's board is blotted than how many points she owns (as long as Blue won't be blocked behind points after being hit). This can be demonstrated by taking extreme situations in both cases.

In the position above, Blue should leave a blot even though White owns a five-point board. In the position below, Blue should play safe even though White has a one-point board!

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 63
5 point match
pip: 50
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bCBCCBB-----------------m-:1:-1:1:61:1:4:0:5:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout16/5 6/Offeq: +1.928
Player:
Opponent:
99.40% (G:44.78% B:1.61%)
0.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.925...+1.930) - [100.0%]
Duration: 0.9 second
2.Rollout16/Off 1/Offeq: +1.897 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
97.34% (G:45.30% B:1.86%)
2.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.894...+1.900) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1.3 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908913
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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