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who is favoured by contact? OTB and Analysis

Posted By: rambiz
Date: Tuesday, 21 May 2024, at 3:41 p.m.

In Response To: who is favoured by contact? (rambiz)

Thank You to all the contributors.

Over the board, I counted 6 shot leaving rolls for the opponent if I stay back with one checker, but then I saw that the opponent gets much more pick and pass and poining rolls like 21,23,24,51,53, 22,11, etc (see Timothy Chow's Post). So I stopped counting and decided that staying back hurts more and it is not worth it hoping to hit a shot, given that after running I am at what I thought to be my point of last take (~%22) being 9 pips down with the opponent wasting 1 pip (for the third guy on the deuce) and having the cube on my side (see Bob Coka's post).

Running is such a huge blunder, I feel XG++ is good enough for this position. More analysis follows XG's verdict.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 96
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB-------Ab--b-Bcccb-:1:1:1:66:0:0:3:0:10
to play 66

1.XG Roller++20/2 14/8eq: -0,3458
Player:
Opponent:		29,49% (G:1,64% B:0,02%)
70,51% (G:0,51% B:0,00%)
2.XG Roller++20/8(2)eq: -0,4403 (-0,0945)
Player:
Opponent:		24,05% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
75,95% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
3.XG Roller++20/14 20/2eq: -0,4811 (-0,1353)
Player:
Opponent:		22,30% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
77,70% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

One might think that if we stay back, small racing numbers for the opponent like 21,23,... get to pick and pass, so the swings on these rolls favour the running play, breaking contact completely. However, the above argument is flawed and in reality the fly shots compensate partially for the pick and pass rolls. Moreover, staying back forces opponent to move deep or play inflexibly to avoid shots. On top of everything, and I know I am stating the obvious, it is not just about the number of shots we get, the number of pick and pass (or pointing) rolls for the opponent, or the number of rolls which make opponent play safely and inflexibly, but also about the size of the gains or losses in each category.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB-B-----Ab--b--cccb-:1:1:-1:21:0:0:3:0:10
to play 21

1.XG Roller++7/6 7/5eq: +0,2189
Player:
Opponent:		66,51% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
33,49% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
2.XG Roller++10/9 7/5eq: +0,1986 (-0,0203)
Player:
Opponent:		65,65% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
34,35% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BCBBBB-A------b--b-Acccb-:1:1:-1:21:0:0:3:0:10
to play 21

1.XG Roller++7/5* 5/4eq: +0,2536
Player:
Opponent:		65,88% (G:0,52% B:0,01%)
34,12% (G:2,06% B:0,02%)
2.XG Roller++4/1eq: +0,0955 (-0,1581)
Player:
Opponent:		60,71% (G:0,11% B:0,00%)
39,29% (G:0,42% B:0,01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Breaking contact is better if opponent rolls 21

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB-B-----Ab--b--cccb-:1:1:-1:23:0:0:3:0:10
to play 23

1.XG Roller++10/5eq: +0,2862
Player:
Opponent:		69,35% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
30,65% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
2.XG Roller++7/5 7/4eq: +0,2853 (-0,0010)
Player:
Opponent:		69,34% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
30,66% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BCBBBB-A------b--b-Acccb-:1:1:-1:23:0:0:3:0:10
to play 23

1.XG Roller++7/5* 5/2eq: +0,2685
Player:
Opponent:		66,55% (G:0,49% B:0,00%)
33,45% (G:2,04% B:0,02%)
2.XG Roller++4/1 3/1eq: +0,1174 (-0,1510)
Player:
Opponent:		61,57% (G:0,13% B:0,00%)
38,43% (G:0,58% B:0,01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Staying back is better if oppponent rolls 23

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB-B-----Ab--b--cccb-:1:1:-1:24:0:0:3:0:10
to play 24

1.XG Roller++10/6 7/5eq: +0,3957
Player:
Opponent:		74,06% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
25,94% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
2.XG Roller++7/5 7/3eq: +0,3162 (-0,0794)
Player:
Opponent:		70,66% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
29,34% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BCBBBB-A------b--b-Acccb-:1:1:-1:24:0:0:3:0:10
to play 24

1.XG Roller++7/5* 5/1eq: +0,2773
Player:
Opponent:		66,92% (G:0,50% B:0,00%)
33,08% (G:2,03% B:0,02%)
2.XG Roller++7/3 7/5* eq: +0,0196 (-0,2577)
Player:
Opponent:		54,54% (G:0,59% B:0,01%)
45,46% (G:3,66% B:0,02%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Staying back is much better if opponent rolls 42

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB-B-----Ab--b--cccb-:1:1:-1:15:0:0:3:0:10
to play 15

1.XG Roller++10/5 7/6eq: +0,3957
Player:
Opponent:		74,06% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
25,94% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
2.XG Roller++10/9 10/5eq: +0,3296 (-0,0661)
Player:
Opponent:		71,20% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
28,80% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BCBBBB-A------b--b-Acccb-:1:1:-1:15:0:0:3:0:10
to play 15

1.XG Roller++10/5* 5/4eq: +0,4576
Player:
Opponent:		74,97% (G:0,54% B:0,01%)
25,03% (G:0,77% B:0,01%)
2.XG Roller++10/5* 3/2eq: -0,0408 (-0,4984)
Player:
Opponent:		54,60% (G:0,50% B:0,00%)
45,40% (G:10,36% B:0,19%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Breaking Contact is much better if opponent rolls 51

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB-B-----Ab--b--cccb-:1:1:-1:35:0:0:3:0:10
to play 35

1.XG Roller++10/5 7/4eq: +0,4515
Player:
Opponent:		76,38% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
23,62% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
2.XG Roller++10/7 10/5eq: +0,3974 (-0,0541)
Player:
Opponent:		74,07% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
25,93% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BCBBBB-A------b--b-Acccb-:1:1:-1:35:0:0:3:0:10
to play 35

1.XG Roller++10/5* 5/2eq: +0,4708
Player:
Opponent:		75,54% (G:0,48% B:0,01%)
24,46% (G:0,76% B:0,01%)
2.XG Roller++7/4 7/2eq: +0,2706 (-0,2002)
Player:
Opponent:		67,42% (G:0,29% B:0,00%)
32,58% (G:0,59% B:0,01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Breaking contact is better if opponent rolls 53

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB-B-----Ab--b--cccb-:1:1:-1:45:0:0:3:0:10
to play 45

1.XG Roller++10/6 10/5eq: +0,5086
Player:
Opponent:		78,83% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
21,17% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
2.XG Roller++10/5 7/3eq: +0,4798 (-0,0288)
Player:
Opponent:		77,58% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
22,42% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BCBBBB-A------b--b-Acccb-:1:1:-1:45:0:0:3:0:10
to play 45

1.XG Roller++10/5* 5/1eq: +0,4821
Player:
Opponent:		76,03% (G:0,51% B:0,01%)
23,97% (G:0,74% B:0,01%)
2.XG Roller++7/3 7/2eq: +0,2815 (-0,2006)
Player:
Opponent:		67,91% (G:0,30% B:0,00%)
32,09% (G:0,62% B:0,01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Breaking contact is better if opponent rolls 54

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB-B-----Ab--b--cccb-:1:1:-1:46:0:0:3:0:10
to play 46

1.XG Roller++10/6 10/4eq: +0,5004
Player:
Opponent:		78,47% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
21,53% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
2.XG Roller++10/6 7/1eq: +0,4865 (-0,0139)
Player:
Opponent:		77,88% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
22,12% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BCBBBB-A------b--b-Acccb-:1:1:-1:46:0:0:3:0:10
to play 46

1.XG Roller++7/3 7/1eq: +0,3015
Player:
Opponent:		68,80% (G:0,32% B:0,00%)
31,20% (G:0,61% B:0,01%)
2.XG Roller++10/6 10/4eq: -0,0385 (-0,3399)
Player:
Opponent:		52,06% (G:0,12% B:0,00%)
47,94% (G:1,78% B:0,01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Staying back is much much better if opponent rolls 64 and is forced to move deep

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB-B-----Ab--b--cccb-:1:1:-1:56:0:0:3:0:10
to play 56

1.XG Roller++10/5 10/4eq: +0,5499
Player:
Opponent:		80,57% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
19,43% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
2.XG Roller++10/5 7/1eq: +0,5369 (-0,0130)
Player:
Opponent:		80,01% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
19,99% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BCBBBB-A------b--b-Acccb-:1:1:-1:56:0:0:3:0:10
to play 56

1.XG Roller++7/2 7/1eq: +0,3154
Player:
Opponent:		69,41% (G:0,31% B:0,00%)
30,59% (G:0,61% B:0,01%)
2.XG Roller++10/4 10/5* eq: +0,1938 (-0,1216)
Player:
Opponent:		61,52% (G:0,62% B:0,01%)
38,48% (G:1,85% B:0,01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Staying back is much much better if opponent rolls 65 and is forced to move deep

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB-B-----Ab--b--cccb-:1:1:-1:36:0:0:3:0:10
to play 36

1.XG Roller++10/4 7/4eq: +0,4472
Player:
Opponent:		76,21% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
23,79% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
2.XG Roller++10/7 10/4eq: +0,4024 (-0,0449)
Player:
Opponent:		74,28% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
25,72% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BCBBBB-A------b--b-Acccb-:1:1:-1:36:0:0:3:0:10
to play 36

1.XG Roller++10/7 10/4eq: +0,3887
Player:
Opponent:		73,36% (G:0,15% B:0,00%)
26,64% (G:0,10% B:0,00%)
2.XG Roller++7/4 7/1eq: +0,2931 (-0,0956)
Player:
Opponent:		68,39% (G:0,34% B:0,00%)
31,61% (G:0,62% B:0,01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Staying back is much better if opponent rolls 63

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB-B-----Ab--b--cccb-:1:1:-1:16:0:0:3:0:10
to play 16

1.XG Roller++10/4 7/6eq: +0,3950
Player:
Opponent:		73,99% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
26,01% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
2.XG Roller++10/9 10/4eq: +0,3388 (-0,0562)
Player:
Opponent:		71,56% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
28,44% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BCBBBB-A------b--b-Acccb-:1:1:-1:16:0:0:3:0:10
to play 16

1.XG Roller++10/9 10/4eq: -0,1644
Player:
Opponent:		45,97% (G:0,11% B:0,00%)
54,03% (G:2,28% B:0,02%)
2.XG Roller++7/6 7/1eq: -0,1645 (-0,0001)
Player:
Opponent:		47,22% (G:0,19% B:0,00%)
52,78% (G:3,89% B:0,03%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Staying back gains about 0.240 in equity if opponent rolls 61

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB-B-----Ab--b--cccb-:1:1:-1:26:0:0:3:0:10
to play 26

1.XG Roller++10/4 7/5eq: +0,4515
Player:
Opponent:		76,38% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
23,62% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
2.XG Roller++7/5 7/1eq: +0,3892 (-0,0622)
Player:
Opponent:		73,78% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
26,22% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BCBBBB-A------b--b-Acccb-:1:1:-1:26:0:0:3:0:10
to play 26

1.XG Roller++7/1 7/5* eq: +0,0339
Player:
Opponent:		55,17% (G:0,63% B:0,01%)
44,83% (G:3,66% B:0,03%)
2.XG Roller++10/4 7/5* eq: -0,1293 (-0,1631)
Player:
Opponent:		52,44% (G:0,72% B:0,01%)
47,56% (G:15,58% B:0,58%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Staying back gains about 0.410 in equity if opponent rolls 62

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBBBB-B-----Ab--b--cccb-:1:1:-1:41:0:0:3:0:10
to play 41

1.XG Roller++10/6 7/6eq: +0,3139
Player:
Opponent:		70,56% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
29,44% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
2.XG Roller++10/5eq: +0,2862 (-0,0276)
Player:
Opponent:		69,35% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
30,65% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 72
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BCBBBB-A------b--b-Acccb-:1:1:-1:41:0:0:3:0:10
to play 41

1.XG Roller++10/5* eq: -0,0437
Player:
Opponent:		54,52% (G:0,57% B:0,01%)
45,48% (G:10,54% B:0,18%)
2.XG Roller++7/6 7/3eq: -0,1972 (-0,1535)
Player:
Opponent:		45,89% (G:0,15% B:0,00%)
54,11% (G:3,87% B:0,03%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Staying back gain about 0.360 in equity if opponent rolls 41

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