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Endgame cube action from the bar

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 22 May 2024, at 1:49 p.m.

In Response To: Endgame cube action from the bar (ah_clem)

The reference position would be this, which is almost, but not quite, a double:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 54
Unlimited Game
pip: 29
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-D-----------------bcccbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 69.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 30.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.397 +0.795
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.592±0.010 (+0.583..+0.602)
Double/Take:+0.585 (-0.007)±0.009 (+0.576..+0.594)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.408)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:86.4%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3.0 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Moving blue's checkers to the deuce point reduces the GWC by about four percentage points.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 54
Unlimited Game
pip: 33
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--D----------------bcccbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 66.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 33.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.322 +0.644
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.463
Double/Take:+0.419 (-0.044)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.537)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.1%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Note that either may be a practical cube against a human since you only need a small number of wrong passes to make it a correct decision.

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