Here's a general bearin principle that I've found to be pretty widely applicable when the opponent is on the bar: Don't worry about a 2/36 or even a 3/36 chance of getting hit if you can achieve a better distribution. Here, as Jason noted, 12/6 8/6 stacks up on the 6pt and carries a long-term risk of rolling too many 3's.
Another useful principle (though it's not directly applicable in the present position) is that the point in your outer board that is 6 pips away from the opponent's anchor is usually the worst place to put your checkers. I've seen lots of players make the 6-away point because they're afraid of the 2/36 chance of getting hit there, and then be shocked that the bot says it's a blunder. If and when your opponent enters, the 6-away point will be the hardest point to clear; you should strive to clear that point while your opponent is helplessly stuck on the bar. By contrast, the 7-away point is an excellent place to sit because it's out of direct-shot range and it's also well-positioned to bear in nicely. Points closer than 6 pips from the opponent's anchor are also easier to clear than the 6-away point.
        
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 182 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 65
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aBDdBCB-A---A---cb-bba----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 12/4 | eq: +1.438 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 85.27% (G:79.58% B:1.39%)
14.73% (G:0.62% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.430...+1.445) - [97.2%]
Duration: 4 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 12/10 8/2 | eq: +1.428 (-0.010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 84.94% (G:79.26% B:1.10%)
15.06% (G:0.22% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.421...+1.435) - [2.8%]
Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 12/6 8/6 | eq: +1.374 (-0.064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 83.55% (G:77.39% B:1.25%)
16.45% (G:0.27% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+1.366...+1.381) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 182 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 64
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aBDdCBB-A---A---cb-bba----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 12/6 8/6 | eq: +1.432 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 85.04% (G:79.40% B:1.20%)
14.96% (G:0.21% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.425...+1.439) - [93.1%]
Duration: 3 minutes 48 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 12/10 8/2 | eq: +1.424 (-0.008) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 84.81% (G:79.22% B:1.08%)
15.19% (G:0.17% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+1.417...+1.432) - [6.9%]
Duration: 3 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 12/4 | eq: +1.380 (-0.052) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 83.87% (G:77.91% B:1.33%)
16.13% (G:0.89% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+1.372...+1.389) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release