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BGonline.org Forums
Nice 4-4 to play
Posted By: pierrez In Response To: Nice 4-4 to play (ah_clem)
Date: Thursday, 23 May 2024, at 7:21 a.m.
It is hard to resist playing 13/9(2) securing a 5 point prime with 3 white checkers stuck behind and with the last two 4, move forward the rear checker with 24/16.
So what is wrong with this play ?
By attacking the white checker on the 3 point with 7/3*(2) and moving the rear checker to the 16 point, we double the percentage of gammon if white fails to enter or enter badly - a double shot on the white checker on the 15 point.
Gammon rate rises from 10% to 20% when number of total wins stay around 70%. All plays not including the hit are blunders.
White is Joueur 2
score: 0
pip: 1495 point match pip: 144
score: 0
Blue is Joueur 1XGID=-B-abBBBB----B-a-cceB---A-:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:5:10 Blue to play 44
1. Rollout1 24/16 7/3*(2) eq: +0,539
Player:
Opponent:72,43% (G:19,11% B:0,37%)
27,57% (G:4,01% B:0,13%)Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,532...+0,546) - [99,4%]
Duration: 15 minutes 16 seconds2. Rollout1 20/16(2) 7/3*(2) eq: +0,525 (-0,013)
Player:
Opponent:71,83% (G:20,15% B:0,41%)
28,17% (G:4,90% B:0,33%)Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,518...+0,533) - [0,6%]
Duration: 16 minutes 00 second3. Rollout1 13/5 7/3*(2) eq: +0,502 (-0,037)
Player:
Opponent:69,58% (G:23,58% B:0,43%)
30,42% (G:5,28% B:0,20%)Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,494...+0,510) - [0,0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 41 seconds4. Rollout1 13/9(2) 7/3*(2) eq: +0,487 (-0,052)
Player:
Opponent:69,54% (G:22,22% B:0,38%)
30,46% (G:5,28% B:0,42%)Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,479...+0,495) - [0,0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 32 seconds5. Rollout1 24/16 13/9(2) eq: +0,443 (-0,096)
Player:
Opponent:72,51% (G:11,06% B:0,32%)
27,49% (G:4,29% B:0,18%)Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,436...+0,450) - [0,0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 25 seconds1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
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