[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Two contrasting variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 25 May 2024, at 5:18 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout + variant + a general principle (Timothy Chow)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 182
Unlimited Game
pip: 65
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBDdBCB-A---A---cb-bba----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 62

1.Rollout112/4eq: +1.438
Player:
Opponent:		85.27% (G:79.58% B:1.39%)
14.73% (G:0.62% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.430...+1.445) - [97.2%]
Duration: 4 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout112/10 8/2eq: +1.428 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		84.94% (G:79.26% B:1.10%)
15.06% (G:0.22% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.421...+1.435) - [2.8%]
Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds
3.Rollout112/6 8/6eq: +1.374 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:		83.55% (G:77.39% B:1.25%)
16.45% (G:0.27% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+1.366...+1.381) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 44 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Tim's rollout of his original position is above.

Decisions of whether to leave a 17:1 shot in exchange for distributional gain or speed are very sensitive to the board/prime/blot situation on the opponent's side of the board. For example, try moving Opp's 4pt blot back to her 6pt, as shown in my Variant 1 below.

Internal distribution is also a factor, though to a lesser extent. The original position is stacked against lifting with 8/2. Variant 2 below is the same position as the original except there is not already a spare on the 2pt.

Good point by Jason about avoiding a 3-squeeze, and good point by Tim about eschewing the 6-away point when trying to get home.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 184
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 65
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBDdBCB-A---A---cb-cb-----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White has no 4pt blot

1.Rollout112/10 8/2eq: +1.440
Player:
Opponent:		85.21% (G:79.77% B:1.14%)
14.79% (G:0.21% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.435...+1.446) - [99.7%]
Duration: 13 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout112/4eq: +1.430 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		85.13% (G:79.33% B:1.33%)
14.87% (G:0.67% B:0.03%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.425...+1.435) - [0.3%]
Duration: 14 minutes 12 seconds
3.Rollout212/6 8/6eq: +1.375 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:		83.59% (G:77.67% B:1.23%)
16.41% (G:0.24% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+1.367...+1.383) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 26 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20656964
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 20656964
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 182
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 63
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aDBdBCB-A---A---cb-bba----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: Blue has no 2pt spare

1.Rollout112/10 8/2eq: +1.425
Player:
Opponent:		84.82% (G:79.38% B:1.17%)
15.18% (G:0.23% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.423...+1.428) - [82.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes
2.Rollout112/4eq: +1.424 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		84.92% (G:79.24% B:1.26%)
15.08% (G:0.68% B:0.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.421...+1.426) - [17.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes
3.Rollout212/6 8/6eq: +1.365 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		83.18% (G:77.20% B:1.16%)
16.82% (G:0.27% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.358...+1.371) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 06 seconds
1 12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2691083
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2691083
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.