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Big-swing Variant

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 25 May 2024, at 7:01 p.m.

In Response To: Bot Battle #22 Rollout (Jason Lee)

As you revealed in your rollout result, the XGR++ evaluation for this position overrates the relative value of the double-hit by a lot. Still, it's instructive to compare the evaluated margins to each other in the position pair below.

In Position 1 (yours), Blue owns his 5pt. In Position 2 (below it), Blue owns his 4pt. The margin by which double-hit is right (or less wrong) is more favorable by a whopping .073 + .032 = .105 in Position 2.

This is only part of the explanation, but "root numbers" (where Opp might self-destruct) can be very important. Consider, after Blue quietly runs with 20/13, how double 4s plays in one position versus the other. Compare diagram 3 (where Blue isn't even on the bar) with diagram 4 way below for dramatic effect.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 122
9 point match
pip: 186
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaB-BB-Ba---B--a-bcAbbbD-:1:-1:1:61:4:5:0:9:10
Position 1: Blue owns 5pt

1.XG Roller++20/13eq: -0.888
Player:
Opponent:		30.58% (G:6.78% B:0.37%)
69.42% (G:40.12% B:6.64%)
2.XG Roller++8/2* 2/1* eq: -0.960 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:		29.07% (G:7.43% B:0.44%)
70.93% (G:45.62% B:10.47%)
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 122
9 point match
pip: 184
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaBB-B-Ba---B--a-bcAbbbD-:1:-1:1:61:4:5:0:9:10
Position 2: Blue owns 4pt

1.XG Roller++8/2* 2/1* eq: -0.976
Player:
Opponent:		28.59% (G:7.35% B:0.47%)
71.41% (G:45.95% B:10.63%)
2.XG Roller++20/13eq: -1.008 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		27.45% (G:5.45% B:0.32%)
72.55% (G:42.96% B:7.48%)
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 106
9 point match
pip: 179
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaB-BB-Ba---C-----babdcD-:1:-1:1:00:4:5:0:9:10
Diagram 3: After White's 44 in Position 1
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 106
9 point match
pip: 177
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aBB-B-Bb---C----bbabbcD-:1:-1:1:00:4:5:0:9:10
Diagram 4: After White's 44 in Position 2

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