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Nice 4-4 to play - No-hit Variant

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 25 May 2024, at 10:52 p.m.

In Response To: Nice 4-4 to play (pierrez)





White is Joueur 2

score: 0
pip: 149
5 point match
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=-B-abBBBB----B-a-cceB---A-:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 44

1.Rollout124/16 7/3*(2) eq: +0,539
Player:
Opponent:		72,43% (G:19,11% B:0,37%)
27,57% (G:4,01% B:0,13%)		Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,532...+0,546) - [99,4%]
Duration: 15 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout120/16(2) 7/3*(2) eq: +0,525 (-0,013)
Player:
Opponent:		71,83% (G:20,15% B:0,41%)
28,17% (G:4,90% B:0,33%)		Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,518...+0,533) - [0,6%]
Duration: 16 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout113/5 7/3*(2) eq: +0,502 (-0,037)
Player:
Opponent:		69,58% (G:23,58% B:0,43%)
30,42% (G:5,28% B:0,20%)		Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,494...+0,510) - [0,0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 41 seconds
4.Rollout113/9(2) 7/3*(2) eq: +0,487 (-0,052)
Player:
Opponent:		69,54% (G:22,22% B:0,38%)
30,46% (G:5,28% B:0,42%)		Conf.: ± 0,008 (+0,479...+0,495) - [0,0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 32 seconds
5.Rollout124/16 13/9(2)eq: +0,443 (-0,096)
Player:
Opponent:		72,51% (G:11,06% B:0,32%)
27,49% (G:4,29% B:0,18%)		Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,436...+0,450) - [0,0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 25 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Pierrez's rollout of his original position is above. As this indicates, the best non-hitting play by is nearly a whopper (-.096).

My variant below, in which the two ace-point checkers start on the 6pt, is a different story. The best play that does hit (even though it also makes a four-point board) is a mistake (-.034), and the second best play that hits is -.096.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 149
5 point match
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---abBDBB----B-a-cceB---A-:1:-1:1:44:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 44

1.Rollout124/16 13/9(2)eq: +0.433
Player:
Opponent:		73.00% (G:8.69% B:0.36%)
27.00% (G:3.61% B:0.12%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.426...+0.439) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 53 seconds
2.Rollout120/16(2) 13/9(2)eq: +0.404 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		70.57% (G:12.54% B:0.53%)
29.43% (G:5.17% B:0.17%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.396...+0.412) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 49 seconds
3.Rollout17/3*(2) 6/2(2)eq: +0.399 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		68.43% (G:16.94% B:0.45%)
31.57% (G:4.96% B:0.20%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.391...+0.406) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 48 seconds
4.Rollout124/20 13/9(2) 6/2eq: +0.359 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:		69.43% (G:10.98% B:0.46%)
30.57% (G:4.96% B:0.23%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.351...+0.366) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 50 seconds
5.Rollout113/9(2) 6/2(2)eq: +0.338 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:		66.96% (G:15.78% B:0.59%)
33.04% (G:6.92% B:0.43%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.329...+0.346) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 28 seconds
6.Rollout124/16 7/3*(2) eq: +0.337 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:		67.89% (G:12.59% B:0.27%)
32.11% (G:4.79% B:0.23%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.329...+0.345) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 02 seconds
7.Rollout124/16 20/16(2)eq: +0.294 (-0.138)
Player:
Opponent:		68.89% (G:6.13% B:0.22%)
31.11% (G:3.96% B:0.28%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.287...+0.301) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 42 seconds
8.Rollout120/16(2) 7/3*(2) eq: +0.291 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:		66.42% (G:13.39% B:0.45%)
33.58% (G:6.56% B:0.30%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.283...+0.298) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 03 seconds
9.Rollout113/9(2) 7/3*(2) eq: +0.290 (-0.142)
Player:
Opponent:		65.79% (G:14.14% B:0.47%)
34.21% (G:5.64% B:0.37%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.283...+0.298) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 53 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2691083
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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