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QF-what-QF, Progressive Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 26 May 2024, at 12:00 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout: QF? What QF? (Timothy Chow)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 71 Unlimited Game pip: 95 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--CABBAbB-B--B-----aabbcd-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Original: White has 6pt + 5pt blots

1.	Rollout1	10/4 8/6	eq: +0.130
	Player: Opponent: 52.31% (G:15.19% B:1.12%) 47.69% (G:10.20% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.117...+0.142) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/6 8/2	eq: +0.084 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 51.57% (G:5.37% B:0.22%) 48.43% (G:2.67% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.075...+0.092) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Tim is a wily guy. The rollout of his original position is above.

Keying off of White's 6pt + 5pt blots in the original position, the three progressive variants below are: 6pt + 4pt blots, 6pt + 3pt blots, and 6pt + 2pt blots. In one (can you guess which?), the second best play is a whopper.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 72 Unlimited Game Beaver pip: 95 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--CABBAbB-B--B-----ababcd-:0:0:1:62:0:0:2:0:10
Variant 1: White has 6pt + 4pt blots

1.	Rollout1	10/4 8/6	eq: +0.117
	Player: Opponent: 51.39% (G:9.88% B:0.81%) 48.61% (G:8.42% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.108...+0.127) - [99.9%] Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/6 8/2	eq: +0.097 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 52.20% (G:4.95% B:0.21%) 47.80% (G:2.44% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.089...+0.105) - [0.1%] Duration: 2 minutes 03 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 20656964 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 73 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 95 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--CABBAbB-B--B-----abbacd-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White has 6pt + 3pt blots

1.	Rollout1	10/4 8/6	eq: +0.220
	Player: Opponent: 53.95% (G:15.23% B:1.11%) 46.05% (G:9.72% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.209...+0.232) - [100.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 16 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/6 8/2	eq: +0.112 (-0.108)
	Player: Opponent: 53.02% (G:5.41% B:0.19%) 46.98% (G:2.75% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.105...+0.120) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 47 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 99306617 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 73 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 95 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--CABBAbB-B--B-----abbbae-:1:1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: White has 6pt + 2pt blots

1.	Rollout1	8/6 8/2	eq: +0.262
	Player: Opponent: 53.01% (G:5.71% B:0.27%) 46.99% (G:2.55% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.256...+0.268) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 02 seconds
2.	Rollout1	10/4 8/6	eq: +0.240 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 52.08% (G:13.88% B:1.16%) 47.92% (G:10.80% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.233...+0.247) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 58 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2691083 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Is there such a thing as a "midpoint holding game"?
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 23 May 2024, at 12:50 p.m.
  • Is there such a thing as a "midpoint holding game"?
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 23 May 2024, at 6:11 p.m.
  • Rollout: QF? What QF?
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 25 May 2024, at 12:50 p.m.
    • QF-what-QF, Progressive Variants
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 26 May 2024, at 12:00 a.m.