Blue obviously doesn't want to get hit here, but the "safe" play of 12/7 3/1 still gives White 12 return shots; 51 and 41 are less devastating, but are still bad. If, on the other hand, Blue hits a second checker, then the upside of not getting hit is significant. Even White's rolls that enter just one checker without hitting are pretty good for Blue.
        
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 112 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 71
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aCDDaaB-----A------bbcbcA-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 12/5* | eq: -0.344 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.95% (G:10.96% B:0.09%)
68.05% (G:16.24% B:0.54%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.350...-0.339) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 00 second |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 12/7 3/1 | eq: -0.486 (-0.142) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 27.39% (G:7.64% B:0.04%)
72.61% (G:17.51% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.492...-0.481) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 00 second |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 94 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 71
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=aCDD-aB-----A------bbbebA-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 12/5* | eq: -0.259 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.25% (G:3.36% B:0.02%)
63.75% (G:12.62% B:0.38%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.263...-0.256) - [98.3%]
Duration: 34.6 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 12/7 3/1 | eq: -0.265 (-0.005) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.33% (G:1.82% B:0.01%)
64.67% (G:9.92% B:0.27%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.268...-0.261) - [1.7%]
Duration: 39.4 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release