Nine checkers in the zone isn't a lot for an attack. But 8/2* also plays the role of a tempo hit; if White is allowed to use her full roll, she has a plethora of good numbers to run or hit or make a strong point. Plus Blue does have the stronger board (with the 1pt made) and White has a blot in the outfield, all of which suggest an attacking play.
But actually, the decision I had trouble with OTB was how to play the 4 after 8/2*. Typically, when we're attacking, bringing another checker into the zone (especially a tenth checker) is better than moving a checker on the other side of the board. But 24/20 has two things going for it: first and most obviously, it takes aim at White's outfield blot, but secondly, it also steps up a checker to get ready to escape. In the two variants below, getting hemmed in by White's prime is not as much of an issue.
           
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 139 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 144
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-Ba--CB-B---cD--acbe---AA-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/20 8/2* | eq: -0.038 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.83% (G:19.78% B:0.29%)
53.17% (G:14.07% B:0.96%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.050...-0.025) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 04 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/9 8/2* | eq: -0.112 (-0.075) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.85% (G:19.52% B:0.21%)
55.15% (G:14.48% B:1.12%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.126...-0.099) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 03 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/14 | eq: -0.134 (-0.097) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.02% (G:13.79% B:0.30%)
53.98% (G:14.96% B:0.57%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.146...-0.122) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 18 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant 1:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 139 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 142
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-Ba--CB-B---cD--acbe-A--A-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/20 8/2* | eq: +0.039 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.20% (G:20.24% B:0.33%)
51.80% (G:13.99% B:0.91%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.032...+0.047) - [95.7%]
Duration: 6 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/9 8/2* | eq: +0.030 (-0.010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.91% (G:21.50% B:0.26%)
52.09% (G:14.06% B:1.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.022...+0.037) - [3.1%]
Duration: 6 minutes 54 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 21/11 | eq: +0.027 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.26% (G:15.92% B:0.26%)
50.74% (G:11.78% B:0.46%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.019...+0.035) - [1.2%]
Duration: 8 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant 2:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 131 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 144
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-Ba--CB-B---cD--ac-e--bAA-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/9 8/2* | eq: -0.134 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.33% (G:19.15% B:0.29%)
54.67% (G:18.87% B:1.77%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.148...-0.121) - [78.7%]
Duration: 4 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/20 8/2* | eq: -0.142 (-0.008) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.14% (G:17.87% B:0.32%)
54.86% (G:18.67% B:1.28%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.156...-0.128) - [21.3%]
Duration: 4 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release