This came up in a match of mine on DG and while it was easy once I stopped, I almost auto clicked to hitting and continuing because that's the normal thing to do, hit stuff when it's relatively safe.
Here though the race is virtually gin. As we can see thanks to XG we're about 98% if we run without hitting. How often do we lose when hit? Kind of easy to figure out too as we don't own the cube so let's call every immediate hit a loss. That's two numbers or 5.5% of the time. That's clearly the main line to losing and anything else will be fairly insignificant in adding to our opp's wins so I think it's easy enough to round to 6% for how often our opponent wins after we hit.
This means we need to win over 8% gammons to justify hitting. I could throw out random reference positions but on feel alone I didn't see it being this high because the opponent can enter immediately and we can never close him out.
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| XGID=-DCBCB------a---Ac-ccbc---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 54 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/7 | eq: +0.956 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 16/12* 12/7 | eq: +0.902 (-0.055) | |||
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| 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||