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Rollout + variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 6 June 2024, at 12:03 p.m.

In Response To: Hit and then...? (Timothy Chow)

In a blitz, creating more builders is usually more important than escaping the back checkers. But this is arguably more of a containment position than a blitzing position, so outfield coverage is important, too.

The variant illustrates that the decision is more subtle than it might appear at first glance.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 137
Unlimited Game
pip: 146
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---a-BE-C--AcB---dbe-A--A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.Rollout121/15 8/3* eq: +0.050
Player:
Opponent:		50.54% (G:16.41% B:0.39%)
49.46% (G:13.33% B:0.88%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.036...+0.063) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout111/5 8/3* eq: -0.077 (-0.127)
Player:
Opponent:		47.09% (G:15.90% B:0.38%)
52.91% (G:12.24% B:0.77%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.091...-0.064) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 45 seconds
3.Rollout121/16 11/5eq: -0.122 (-0.171)
Player:
Opponent:		45.80% (G:12.27% B:0.33%)
54.20% (G:10.87% B:0.47%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.134...-0.109) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 46 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 137
Unlimited Game
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---a-BE-C--AcB---dbe--A-A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.Rollout122/16 8/3* eq: -0.054
Player:
Opponent:		48.30% (G:15.52% B:0.44%)
51.70% (G:14.45% B:0.96%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.068...-0.041) - [93.9%]
Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds
2.Rollout111/5 8/3* eq: -0.071 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		46.84% (G:16.00% B:0.38%)
53.16% (G:12.13% B:0.72%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.084...-0.058) - [3.7%]
Duration: 4 minutes 54 seconds
3.Rollout122/11eq: -0.072 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		47.59% (G:11.43% B:0.31%)
52.41% (G:9.91% B:0.42%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.084...-0.060) - [2.3%]
Duration: 5 minutes 07 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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