Everyone who replied got it right but OtB I thought this was a bitch of a problem. Even 3 ply thought the safe play was the way to go! It is so often correct to play cleanly when the race is close/you're ahead when your opponent has a strong offensive position.
One of the other questions I often ask myself when deciding between hitting or not is if I hit/point and my opponent fans will I have a cube? Here we would be nowhere near recubing territory so that was another knock for me against 13/1*(2).
See the variant below where we've made the opp's offensive position even stronger and now it's correct to play safe even though we're five fewer pips ahead in the race after the play.
          
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 134 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 151
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aB--BC-A-c--C--Cc-ccb--A-:1:1:1:66:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 66 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/1*(2) | eq: +0.118 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.51% (G:16.39% B:0.15%)
52.49% (G:16.96% B:0.76%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.108...+0.128) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24.9 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/6 8/2 | eq: +0.051 (-0.067) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.04% (G:7.84% B:0.17%)
52.96% (G:14.65% B:0.37%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.042...+0.060) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26.3 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 129 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 151
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aB--BC-A-c--C--Cc-bbbb-A-:1:1:1:66:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 66 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/6 8/2 | eq: -0.047 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.73% (G:6.21% B:0.17%)
56.27% (G:15.52% B:0.38%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.056...-0.039) - [100.0%]
Duration: 27.3 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/1*(2) | eq: -0.121 (-0.074) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.96% (G:14.09% B:0.16%)
59.04% (G:22.35% B:1.11%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.133...-0.109) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26.0 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|