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Rollout + 2 variants

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 8 June 2024, at 1:12 p.m.

In Response To: Holding game cubes are boring, aren't they? (Timothy Chow)

OTB, I was White, and I knew that moving White's straggler forward two pips would make it a big pass (see Variant 1 below), since it was close to a reference position (Blue's bar point filled in, big race lead). So I figured this position was a pass too. But XG doesn't even double! Each pip that White's straggler is moved back increases White's winning chances significantly, while conceding relatively few extra gammons.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 154
Unlimited Game
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---a-bEBC--CcBa--b-b-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.93% (G:7.79% B:0.14%) 70.95% (G:7.97% B:0.15%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.07% (G:4.38% B:0.11%) 29.05% (G:4.45% B:0.10%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.453 +0.909
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.764±0.012 (+0.752..+0.775)
Double/Take:+0.742 (-0.022)±0.014 (+0.727..+0.756)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.236)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 8.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:99.1%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 21 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Variant 1:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 152
Unlimited Game
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----cEBC--CcBa--b-b-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 78.85% (G:2.67% B:0.02%) 79.78% (G:2.42% B:0.03%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 21.15% (G:1.08% B:0.03%) 20.22% (G:1.16% B:0.03%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.593 +1.216
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.974 (-0.026)±0.006 (+0.968..+0.979)
Double/Take:+1.106 (+0.106)±0.010 (+1.096..+1.115)
Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 42 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Variant 2:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
Unlimited Game
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----abEBC--CcBa--b-b-bb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 74.49% (G:7.33% B:0.08%) 74.43% (G:7.52% B:0.08%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 25.51% (G:2.70% B:0.07%) 25.57% (G:2.73% B:0.07%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.536 +1.073
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.913 (-0.025)±0.011 (+0.902..+0.924)
Double/Take:+0.937±0.012 (+0.925..+0.950)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.063)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:99.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 14 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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