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Rollout: Not what you think!

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 12 June 2024, at 3:59 a.m.

In Response To: Does anyone have a rule of thumb for this sort of position? (Timothy Chow)

The subject line suggests Pottle's law, but XG strongly prefers 13/7.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128
Unlimited Game
pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BAB-ACAb---bD-a-c-e---bA-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 6/5eq: +0.206
Player:
Opponent:		55.62% (G:13.49% B:0.18%)
44.38% (G:6.82% B:0.19%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.195...+0.216) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 25 seconds
2.Rollout124/18 6/5eq: +0.132 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:		53.86% (G:12.58% B:0.27%)
46.14% (G:8.56% B:0.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.121...+0.143) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 42 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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