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Rollout: Hit one, hit two, run a straggler, or do something else?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 12 June 2024, at 9:57 p.m.

In Response To: Hit one, hit two, run a straggler, or do something else? (ah_clem)

This came up in the Facebook Humans vs XG match recently and the group voted for the fourth place move (hit on the ten point and play the spare off the anchor).

XG four ply favors hitting once by bringing two down from the midpoint, but hitting twice or running off the 21 to the midpoint were both within .008 so no real verdict there.

XGR++ favors 21/13, but two down or the double hit are both within .007.

Full 1286 rollout puts more distance between the moves with the double hit coming out on top by .016. I'm at a loss to come up with a variant that further illuminates the various factors in play here.

I voted for two down, and am perfectly happy to have chosen the four ply bot move even though the rollout says it's a .030 error.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 173
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--a-EBB-a-cB---d-c-Cb-A-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout113/10* 6/1* eq: -0.111
Player:
Opponent:		47.70% (G:14.23% B:0.55%)
52.30% (G:16.60% B:0.97%)		Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.129...-0.093) - [90.5%]
Duration: 9 minutes 16 seconds
2.Rollout121/13eq: -0.127 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		46.60% (G:12.05% B:0.47%)
53.40% (G:12.45% B:0.53%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.141...-0.113) - [9.2%]
Duration: 8 minutes 25 seconds
3.Rollout113/8 13/10* eq: -0.141 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		46.55% (G:12.00% B:0.53%)
53.45% (G:14.11% B:0.58%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.157...-0.126) - [0.3%]
Duration: 9 minutes 08 seconds
4.Rollout121/16 13/10* eq: -0.167 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:		47.46% (G:12.68% B:0.71%)
52.54% (G:18.25% B:1.16%)		Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.188...-0.147) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 42 seconds
5.Rollout124/16eq: -0.176 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:		45.77% (G:11.06% B:0.47%)
54.23% (G:14.29% B:0.61%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.192...-0.160) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 40 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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