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Rollout + GS + variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 14 June 2024, at 1:06 p.m.

In Response To: Anchor or hit? (Timothy Chow)

Admittedly there's no urgent need to anchor, given White's weak offensive position, but I also saw no need to risk my slight lead in the pip count by hitting. However, XG insists on hitting. At gammon save, XG says the two plays are tied.

In the variant, I have moved White's rearmost checker back one pip.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
Unlimited Game
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----abEBB---cD--ac-e----AA:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout1Bar/22 6/4* eq: -0.014
Player:
Opponent:
50.13% (G:10.78% B:0.44%)
49.87% (G:13.19% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.027...-0.001) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 24/22eq: -0.096 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
47.95% (G:8.79% B:0.34%)
52.05% (G:10.95% B:0.35%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.110...-0.082) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 09 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release


Gammon save:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 161
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----abEBB---cD--ac-e----AA:0:0:1:32:1:0:1:2:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout1Bar/22 24/22eq: -0.267
Player:
Opponent:
47.76% (G:13.65% B:1.00%)
52.24% (G:11.10% B:0.95%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.274...-0.259) - [96.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 6/4* eq: -0.277 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
49.17% (G:14.79% B:1.48%)
50.83% (G:13.01% B:1.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.285...-0.269) - [4.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2


Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 164
Unlimited Game
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---a-bEBB---cD--ac-e----AA:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout1Bar/22 24/22eq: -0.080
Player:
Opponent:
48.73% (G:8.80% B:0.34%)
51.27% (G:11.27% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.093...-0.067) - [84.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 25 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/23 6/3* eq: -0.090 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
48.44% (G:10.25% B:0.42%)
51.56% (G:13.54% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.105...-0.076) - [16.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 05 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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