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BGonline.org Forums
My Answer
Posted By: Max Stockslager In Response To: My Answer (Bob Koca)
Date: Friday, 21 June 2024, at 10:55 a.m.
For Option 1 my rough estimate was 51.18% (50% + EMG equity after 31P [0.236] * Neil’s number for 11a [5%]) which is close enough that I imagine you did something similar.
Option 2 was less clear though. If we use the 42 in the first game I estimate 50.89% (using the same approach as above), which is close enough to your estimate that it looks like you may have used your 42 on Game 1 also. If this is true, how do you convince yourself that this is optimal? It’s not clear to me how to evaluate whether the benefit of waiting to try to use the 42 at a more favorable score is worth the risk of not getting to use it at all (or having to use it at a score where you gain less than 0.89% MWC). Seems unlikely that it’s worth waiting but I couldn’t see a simple way to prove it.
If it were known how often the leader and trailer win 1/2/3/4/etc points at different match scores, it would be interesting to look at the “score trajectories” and estimate how often you get from the current score to a score where the 42 is more valuable (then use this to evaluate whether waiting to use your 42 later is worth the risk). This could probably be determined from large rollout datasets but I haven’t seen it. Of course this ignores that the free 42 might affect your play but that seems minor for how small of a MWC bonus we are dealing with.
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