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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 21 June 2024, at 12:42 p.m.

In Response To: Everyone here knows their 2nd-roll positions, right? (Timothy Chow)

Once you see that the bot wants to play 13/8(2) 6/1*(2), it's not hard to see the reason. Blue doesn't want to "lose his double" by being hit back from the bar. More precisely, Blue is on the verge of a cube, and he gets much better cube efficiency from 13/8(2) 6/1*(2). If instead Blue plays 8/3(2) 6/1*(2), then it's a humongously inefficient pass if White dances, and a poor position if White hits back.

My records show that I made this mistake 6 years ago, and made a careful note of it. Unfortunately, that didn't stop me from making the same mistake again recently.





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 158
7 point match
pip: 167
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a----EaC---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:55:3:5:0:7:10
Blue to play 55

1.Rollout113/8(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.691
Player:
Opponent:		53.70% (G:20.31% B:0.70%)
46.30% (G:10.82% B:1.20%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.684...+0.698) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout18/3(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.604 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:		53.57% (G:23.69% B:0.90%)
46.43% (G:11.50% B:1.40%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.597...+0.611) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 08 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
First 3 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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