It's clear what the tradeoff is between the two candidate plays, but I think it is not so easy to judge which play to make at which score.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 2 pip: 150 | 7 point match | pip: 152 score: 4
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-----CDCc-a-bB---c-dbB--A-:0:0:1:65:4:2:0:7:10 |
Blue to play 65 |
1. | Rollout1 | 24/13 | eq: -0.043 |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.23% (G:8.30% B:0.30%) 50.77% (G:6.71% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.054...-0.032) - [100.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 35 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 21/10* | eq: -0.119 (-0.076) |
| Player: Opponent: | 48.56% (G:17.58% B:1.28%) 51.44% (G:13.44% B:0.71%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.135...-0.103) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 42 seconds |
|
|
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52672062 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Money:

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 150 | Unlimited Game | pip: 152 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-----CDCc-a-bB---c-dbB--A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10 |
Blue to play 65 |
1. | Rollout1 | 21/10* | eq: -0.020 |
| Player: Opponent: | 48.60% (G:16.52% B:0.57%) 51.40% (G:13.30% B:0.65%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.033...-0.006) - [77.4%] Duration: 6 minutes 54 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 24/13 | eq: -0.026 (-0.007) |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.24% (G:7.96% B:0.19%) 50.76% (G:6.90% B:0.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.037...-0.016) - [22.6%] Duration: 6 minutes 20 seconds |
|
|
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 52672062 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release