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Rollout ATS + for money

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 23 June 2024, at 12:29 p.m.

In Response To: Here's the promised 4th ATS checker-play problem (Timothy Chow)

This is another one where, if you saw the money-game rollout, it would not be hard to adjust for the match score. But I think it's not so easy to judge OTB how bold or safe a play to make.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 156
7 point match
pip: 137
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BB-aaB-C---cD-b-d-dA--A--:0:0:1:63:4:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 63

1.Rollout123/20 13/7eq: -0.074
Player:
Opponent:
51.52% (G:14.73% B:0.23%)
48.48% (G:8.16% B:0.37%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.087...-0.061) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 41 seconds
2.Rollout113/4* eq: -0.166 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
50.00% (G:21.48% B:0.47%)
50.00% (G:13.20% B:0.54%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.180...-0.152) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 21 seconds
3.Rollout123/20 8/2eq: -0.181 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:
49.19% (G:14.71% B:0.40%)
50.81% (G:10.46% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.195...-0.166) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 57 seconds
4.Rollout120/14 8/5* eq: -0.194 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:
49.65% (G:21.24% B:0.65%)
50.35% (G:14.11% B:0.66%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.208...-0.179) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 43 seconds
5.Rollout113/7 8/5* eq: -0.194 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
49.32% (G:22.90% B:0.75%)
50.68% (G:14.00% B:0.78%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.208...-0.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 19 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2


Money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 156
Unlimited Game
pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BB-aaB-C---cD-b-d-dA--A--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.Rollout123/20 13/7eq: +0.096
Player:
Opponent:
51.58% (G:13.43% B:0.16%)
48.42% (G:7.45% B:0.31%)
Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.084...+0.109) - [67.7%]
Duration: 6 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout113/7 8/5* eq: +0.087 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
49.30% (G:21.68% B:0.35%)
50.70% (G:13.85% B:0.80%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.074...+0.101) - [11.3%]
Duration: 4 minutes 57 seconds
3.Rollout113/4* eq: +0.087 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
50.22% (G:20.41% B:0.33%)
49.78% (G:13.00% B:0.63%)
Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.073...+0.101) - [11.4%]
Duration: 6 minutes 09 seconds
4.Rollout120/14 8/5* eq: +0.083 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
49.92% (G:20.46% B:0.35%)
50.08% (G:13.81% B:0.71%)
Conf.: ± 0.019 (+0.064...+0.102) - [9.6%]
Duration: 6 minutes 03 seconds
5.Rollout123/20 8/2eq: +0.001 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
49.52% (G:12.26% B:0.16%)
50.48% (G:9.65% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.012...+0.014) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 49 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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