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Rollout + variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 26 June 2024, at 11:45 a.m.

In Response To: Ace-point holding game cube, sort of (Timothy Chow)

I doubled here but XG said it was nowhere close. A hit and a dance does lose Blue's market, but Blue apparently has enough bad rolls (64 is an anti-joker) to cancel them out.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131
Unlimited Game
pip: 73
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-GC-C--a-B-----bbbcab---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 59.03% (G:16.92% B:1.26%) 59.33% (G:16.63% B:1.28%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 40.97% (G:4.96% B:0.22%) 40.67% (G:4.61% B:0.21%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.311 +0.635
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.569±0.009 (+0.560..+0.578)
Redouble/Take:+0.376 (-0.193)±0.015 (+0.362..+0.391)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.431)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 30.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131
Unlimited Game
pip: 72
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-FD-C--aB------bbbcab---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 66.29% (G:18.53% B:1.27%) 66.05% (G:18.99% B:1.47%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.71% (G:3.00% B:0.10%) 33.95% (G:2.81% B:0.10%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.493 +0.993
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.727 (-0.032)±0.005 (+0.722..+0.733)
Redouble/Take:+0.759±0.015 (+0.744..+0.774)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.241)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 55 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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