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Rollout + variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 28 June 2024, at 12:04 a.m.

In Response To: 3pt holding game cube, sort of (Timothy Chow)

XG says it would be a double even with a tiny bit more flexibility, but that it would be a big mistake to double here (as I did).





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
pip: 88
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BabBBB-G---a----abbbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 62.23% (G:14.30% B:0.17%) 62.18% (G:14.37% B:0.18%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 37.77% (G:6.29% B:0.18%) 37.82% (G:6.69% B:0.19%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.325 +0.640
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.525±0.011 (+0.514..+0.536)
Double/Take:+0.429 (-0.096)±0.015 (+0.413..+0.444)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.475)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 52672062
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 34 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
pip: 84
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BabCBB-F---a----abbbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 65.08% (G:17.35% B:0.18%) 65.09% (G:17.39% B:0.22%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 34.92% (G:5.03% B:0.15%) 34.91% (G:5.36% B:0.18%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.425 +0.845
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.644 (-0.009)±0.008 (+0.636..+0.652)
Double/Take:+0.652±0.010 (+0.642..+0.663)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.348)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:90.2%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 59 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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