Keeping the anchor is the "Obvious" play, but blue is better off going for an exchange of hits with the stronger board and two of white's homeboard blots to shoot at. The safe, obvious play is a double whopper.
In the variants, I filled in white's five point so that there's only the ace blot to shoot at, and that makes clearing the midpoint only a single whopper. In the second a variant I filled in both blots and that makes the safe play come out on top. Barely.
           
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 77 | | 5 point match | pip: 110
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BBCBB-----bB---b-bBadca-:1:1:1:64:0:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/10 | eq: -0.072 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.60% (G:5.13% B:0.15%)
59.40% (G:2.09% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.076...-0.068) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 20/14 13/9 | eq: -0.113 (-0.041) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.45% (G:7.91% B:0.29%)
59.55% (G:7.61% B:0.11%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.118...-0.109) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 40 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/3 | eq: -0.118 (-0.046) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.48% (G:5.09% B:0.19%)
61.52% (G:2.55% B:0.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.122...-0.113) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 33 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 20/16 13/7 | eq: -0.148 (-0.076) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.46% (G:8.49% B:0.30%)
60.54% (G:8.37% B:0.13%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.153...-0.143) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 13/9 13/7 | eq: -0.255 (-0.183) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.13% (G:3.51% B:0.12%)
66.87% (G:1.66% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.259...-0.251) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 38 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Variant 1
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 78 | | 5 point match | pip: 110
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BBCBB-----bB---b-bBbcca-:1:1:1:64:0:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 20/10 | eq: -0.209 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.61% (G:5.23% B:0.14%)
64.39% (G:5.55% B:0.03%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/3 | eq: -0.269 (-0.059) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.45% (G:4.90% B:0.13%)
67.55% (G:5.05% B:0.05%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 13/9 13/7 | eq: -0.311 (-0.102) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.46% (G:2.07% B:0.05%)
69.54% (G:1.57% B:0.03%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 13/7 5/1 | eq: -0.392 (-0.182) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.64% (G:4.13% B:0.10%)
71.36% (G:8.30% B:0.30%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 20/14 13/9 | eq: -0.409 (-0.199) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.74% (G:6.70% B:0.18%)
67.26% (G:17.12% B:0.45%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Variant 2
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 77 | | 5 point match | pip: 110
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BBCBB-----bB---b-bBbcbb-:1:1:1:64:0:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/9 13/7 | eq: -0.337 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.56% (G:1.99% B:0.05%)
70.44% (G:2.00% B:0.03%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 20/10 | eq: -0.366 (-0.030) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.07% (G:5.66% B:0.22%)
68.93% (G:10.10% B:0.03%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 13/3 | eq: -0.458 (-0.121) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 26.04% (G:2.09% B:0.04%)
73.96% (G:6.17% B:0.04%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 13/7 6/2 | eq: -0.568 (-0.231) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.27% (G:1.28% B:0.02%)
77.73% (G:8.93% B:0.16%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 13/7 5/1 | eq: -0.569 (-0.232) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22.70% (G:1.69% B:0.04%)
77.30% (G:9.70% B:0.22%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2