As Tenland observed, it matters a lot whether White has awkward rolls after we hit. See the two variants below.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 104 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aaBBC-CB--------cbbbbCb-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/14 | eq: +0.527 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.08% (G:15.35% B:0.64%)
38.92% (G:11.33% B:0.36%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.517...+0.537) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 40 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/17 8/5 | eq: +0.475 (-0.052) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.44% (G:15.61% B:0.64%)
40.56% (G:12.78% B:0.54%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.464...+0.486) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 23/17 6/3* | eq: +0.460 (-0.067) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.50% (G:15.16% B:0.66%)
39.50% (G:17.18% B:0.59%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.449...+0.470) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 34 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 9/3* 6/3 | eq: +0.379 (-0.148) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.27% (G:15.28% B:0.58%)
43.73% (G:12.88% B:0.49%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.367...+0.390) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant 1:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 105 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-aBBC-CB--------cbbbbCb-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/14 | eq: +0.479 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.57% (G:14.32% B:0.57%)
40.43% (G:11.56% B:0.42%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.474...+0.484) - [79.2%]
Duration: 10 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/17 6/3* | eq: +0.476 (-0.003) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.32% (G:15.99% B:0.72%)
38.68% (G:16.90% B:0.67%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.470...+0.482) - [20.8%]
Duration: 12 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 23/17 8/5 | eq: +0.435 (-0.045) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.41% (G:14.52% B:0.53%)
41.59% (G:12.78% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.424...+0.446) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 9/3* 6/3 | eq: +0.434 (-0.045) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.98% (G:16.14% B:0.69%)
42.02% (G:11.97% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.424...+0.444) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant 2:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 103 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 147
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aaBBC-CB--------bcbbbCb-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/14 | eq: +0.509 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.82% (G:14.53% B:0.53%)
39.18% (G:12.20% B:0.47%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.504...+0.515) - [98.5%]
Duration: 11 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/3* 6/3 | eq: +0.501 (-0.008) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.83% (G:16.58% B:0.65%)
40.17% (G:11.87% B:0.46%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.497...+0.506) - [1.4%]
Duration: 8 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 23/17 6/3* | eq: +0.495 (-0.014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.75% (G:15.60% B:0.64%)
38.25% (G:17.27% B:0.70%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.489...+0.502) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release