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Rollout + puzzling variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 6 July 2024, at 1:19 p.m.

In Response To: Hit or jump out? (Timothy Chow)

I'm still not entirely sure why the verdicts for the original position and the variant are so different.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 140
Unlimited Game
pip: 115
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBaBBBBA---AaA--cb-cbb-B--:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout111/8 7/2* eq: +0.751
Player:
Opponent:
69.63% (G:53.70% B:1.81%)
30.37% (G:7.93% B:0.44%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.741...+0.760) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 35 seconds
2.Rollout123/18 7/4eq: +0.701 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:
70.68% (G:45.76% B:1.70%)
29.32% (G:6.78% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.692...+0.710) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds
3.Rollout123/18 11/8eq: +0.699 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
69.70% (G:49.88% B:1.86%)
30.30% (G:9.49% B:1.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.691...+0.707) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 08 seconds
4.Rollout123/18 13/10eq: +0.686 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:
69.37% (G:48.11% B:1.86%)
30.63% (G:8.47% B:0.84%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.678...+0.695) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 32 seconds
5.Rollout123/15eq: +0.626 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
68.27% (G:45.80% B:1.71%)
31.73% (G:8.43% B:0.85%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.618...+0.634) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 30 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release


Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 140
Unlimited Game
pip: 113
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBaBBBBA-A--aA--cb-cbb-B--:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout123/18 9/6eq: +0.731
Player:
Opponent:
70.39% (G:49.35% B:1.83%)
29.61% (G:7.40% B:0.53%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.727...+0.735) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout123/18 7/4eq: +0.718 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
70.99% (G:46.30% B:1.67%)
29.01% (G:6.61% B:0.41%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.714...+0.722) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout19/6 7/2* eq: +0.710 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
68.50% (G:52.73% B:1.80%)
31.50% (G:7.90% B:0.40%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.705...+0.716) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 54 seconds
4.Rollout123/18 13/10eq: +0.693 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
69.32% (G:49.83% B:1.84%)
30.68% (G:8.86% B:0.93%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.689...+0.698) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 27 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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