White has a backgame ''structure'' but not enough timing for a viable backgame (yet). I saw this and thought that a pure play would be in order and taking some risks to make my five point would be worth it in a proto-backgame. Gammons win the match so an aggressive play seemed right.
But as Tim points out, the match score is similar to GG - if white can score a gammon (or a doubled gammon) it's more valuable than usual. That tips it towards making the defensive GP. XG likes playing to the three presumably since it's a point we will find useful if this turns into an actual backgame and white probably doesn't want to hit it in most cases, and if she does blue has the advanced anchor so being hit is no big deal. And keeping the midpoint is, well, keeping the midpoint.
Variants: for unlimited, and it's a "pick either one" decision; for GG, making the five point is the obvious winner although XG doesn't like 13/8 after making the 20 point at either score. So, yes score matters.
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 166 | | 5 point match | pip: 139
score: 3
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bB-b-D-C-B-bB---bbcAA--b-:0:0:1:51:3:1:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 21/20 8/3 | eq: +0.168 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.08% (G:19.31% B:2.11%)
39.92% (G:9.17% B:0.42%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.152...+0.184) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 54 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 21/20 13/8 | eq: +0.096 (-0.071) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.91% (G:17.37% B:2.01%)
42.09% (G:8.81% B:0.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.080...+0.112) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 10/5 6/5 | eq: +0.009 (-0.158) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.50% (G:23.41% B:6.20%)
41.50% (G:13.61% B:0.88%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.008...+0.026) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 40 seconds |
|
| 4. | 4-ply | 20/14 | eq: +0.130 (-0.038) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.88% (G:16.83% B:0.91%)
39.12% (G:11.37% B:0.29%) | |
|
| 5. | 3-ply | 21/15 | eq: +0.061 (-0.107) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.59% (G:18.44% B:1.23%)
40.41% (G:12.20% B:0.28%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Unlimited:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 166 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 139
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bB-b-D-C-B-bB---bbcAA--b-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 21/20 8/3 | eq: +0.438 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.41% (G:16.95% B:0.71%)
39.59% (G:8.83% B:0.24%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 10/5 6/5 | eq: +0.430 (-0.008) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.46% (G:22.07% B:1.90%)
40.54% (G:12.84% B:0.46%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 20/14 | eq: +0.409 (-0.029) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.32% (G:17.44% B:0.96%)
39.68% (G:11.89% B:0.28%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 21/15 | eq: +0.381 (-0.057) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.27% (G:19.04% B:1.14%)
40.73% (G:12.65% B:0.32%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 21/20 13/8 | eq: +0.358 (-0.080) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.53% (G:14.89% B:0.57%)
41.47% (G:8.28% B:0.21%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
GG
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 166 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 139
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-bB-b-D-C-B-bB---bbcAA--b-:0:0:1:51:0:1:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 10/5 6/5 | eq: +0.618 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.11% (G:20.80% B:1.52%)
39.89% (G:11.95% B:0.44%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 21/20 8/3 | eq: +0.544 (-0.074) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.83% (G:16.39% B:0.65%)
39.17% (G:9.03% B:0.26%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 21/15 | eq: +0.544 (-0.075) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.82% (G:16.36% B:0.85%)
39.18% (G:11.61% B:0.31%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 20/14 | eq: +0.543 (-0.075) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.22% (G:15.95% B:0.76%)
38.78% (G:11.26% B:0.27%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | 21/20 13/8 | eq: +0.464 (-0.154) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.88% (G:14.32% B:0.55%)
41.12% (G:8.44% B:0.23%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2