My first instinct was to hit, and I should have stuck with that. But I saw the opportunity to get off the ace point and make another homeboard point. As others have pointed out, we lose a lot of gammons from this position, so a GS style play would seem to be favored. And what reduces gammons more than grabbing the three point, right?
Wrong. Clearing the 8 point reduces our blots from 3 to 2, hitting takes away half her roll, while 24/22 8/3 leaves three blots. XG does not like that play one bit - it wins fewer games and loses a lot more gammons. There also seems to be some utility in holding the ace point since the top four plays all leave the ace point "anchor", even after 8/3, 12/10 is better than 24/22.
XGR++ favors the hit by .003, full rollout favors clearing the eight. It's close. 24/22 8/3 is a double whopper.
           
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 113 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 169
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-AB-B-Bb-BAB-a---ccbAcB-:1:1:1:52:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/6 8/3 | eq: -0.288 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.92% (G:8.66% B:0.45%)
59.08% (G:31.72% B:5.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.299...-0.277) - [80.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 22/15* | eq: -0.296 (-0.008) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.00% (G:8.74% B:0.47%)
58.00% (G:33.80% B:6.89%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.311...-0.281) - [20.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 52 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 12/10 8/3 | eq: -0.326 (-0.038) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.50% (G:7.97% B:0.47%)
58.50% (G:34.54% B:6.98%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.340...-0.312) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/22 8/3 | eq: -0.504 (-0.216) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.62% (G:7.61% B:0.45%)
64.38% (G:43.19% B:1.82%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.514...-0.493) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10