With QF, one can see that bar/22 24/22 gives the opponent more anti-jokers, as Bob Koca nicely analyzed. The challenge is to notice this option OTB, as opposed to playing on autopilot and keeping the ace-point anchor since that's "normally" the right strategy.
One may question whether the XG rollout can be trusted. If you have read Bob Wachtel's book, you will know that XG2 struggles with certain kinds of positions of this type. However, I think that the merits of bar/22 24/22 manifest themselves immediately, and don't depend very sensitively on correctly evaluating the absolute equity of the position. So IMO, we can trust the verdict that bar/22 24/22 is best, especially since the margin is so large.
          
 
      
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 8 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 184
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----C-CB-------B--AA-a-bBA:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 24/22 | eq: -2.440 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 5.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
94.77% (G:82.42% B:74.21%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-2.451...-2.428) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 00 second |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 19/17 | eq: -2.522 (-0.082) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 3.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.34% (G:84.87% B:76.12%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-2.531...-2.513) - [0.0%]
Duration: 47.3 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 18/16 | eq: -2.542 (-0.102) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 3.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.39% (G:84.93% B:77.86%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-2.552...-2.531) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44.3 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 15/13 | eq: -2.543 (-0.103) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 3.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.30% (G:84.86% B:78.33%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-2.551...-2.534) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46.5 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 | eq: -2.563 (-0.124) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 2.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
97.02% (G:85.98% B:77.52%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-2.572...-2.555) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39.6 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release