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Not quite a race, but should we use a racing formula anyway?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Saturday, 27 July 2024, at 3:42 p.m.

In Response To: Not quite a race, but should we use a racing formula anyway? (Timothy Chow)

Yeah, I'll use a race cube formula here - it's not dispositive but a good way to start. Give blue 2 pips for the extra checkers on the board, give white 4 pips for the extra crossovers and the gap on the six. That makes it 25-29. Add 4 (1/6th) to blue's adjusted pipcount and subtract 2 to get the point of last take. That's 27, so a clear pass from a race cube perspective.

But both sides have some shot equity, which changes things. Shot equity massively favors white, so perhaps she can take despite being ~2 pips down in the race-cube. I'm almost certain this is a recube. The take seems marginal.

61, 62, 51, 52, 41, and 42 force blue to leave a shot. That's 12/36 and then white needs to hit for about 1/9 chances to hit. And then either white has to use an ace to safety the homeboard blot or blue needs to not roll a 2. Maybe that's enough to make up for the race deficit, but I'll pass this one.

R/P.

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