BGonline.org Forums

Rollout + variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 28 July 2024, at 1:55 a.m.

In Response To: Not quite a race, but should we use a racing formula anyway? (Timothy Chow)

JOH and UBK analyzed this one very nicely.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 25 Unlimited Game pip: 23 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ACa-B----------------ab-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	72.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	27.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.436	+0.888
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.661 (-0.106)	±0.006 (+0.655..+0.668)
Redouble/Take:	+0.767	±0.010 (+0.757..+0.777)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.233)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 62908879 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---

Variant:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 25 Unlimited Game pip: 22 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ACaAA----------------ab-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	76.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	77.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	23.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.529	+1.080
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.752 (-0.242)	±0.004 (+0.748..+0.756)
Redouble/Take:	+0.994	±0.006 (+0.988..+1.000)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.006)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 62908879 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++ Search interval: Gigantic
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		97.5%
Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Messages In This Thread

• Not quite a race, but should we use a racing formula anyway?
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 25 July 2024, at 1:19 p.m.
  • Not quite a race, but should we use a racing formula anyway?
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 25 July 2024, at 2:41 p.m.
    • Not quite a race, but should we use a racing formula anyway?
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 25 July 2024, at 9:50 p.m.
      • Not quite a race, but should we use a racing formula anyway?
        John O'Hagan -- Friday, 26 July 2024, at 2:12 p.m.
  • Not quite a race, but should we use a racing formula anyway?
    ah_clem -- Saturday, 27 July 2024, at 3:42 p.m.
  • Rollout + variant
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 28 July 2024, at 1:55 a.m.