I would say that 24/18 is the "normal" move in this sort of position, but it does give White a lot of attacking potential, so it's worth considering the alternatives.
In the variant, 11/5 is a top contender. I'm not sure why changing the roll to 63 makes such a big difference.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 151 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 167
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B--b-C-C--AcCa--c-ea---BA:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 24/18 | eq: -0.548 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.49% (G:8.70% B:0.20%)
62.51% (G:21.84% B:1.38%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.561...-0.535) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/15 | eq: -0.630 (-0.081) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.87% (G:8.35% B:0.25%)
64.13% (G:21.22% B:1.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.643...-0.616) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 13/7 | eq: -0.631 (-0.083) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.90% (G:9.58% B:0.27%)
65.10% (G:22.90% B:2.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.650...-0.612) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 11/5 | eq: -0.635 (-0.087) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.70% (G:9.06% B:0.27%)
64.30% (G:22.15% B:1.66%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.647...-0.622) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 151 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 167
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B--b-C-C--AcCa--c-ea---BA:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 24/18 | eq: -0.592 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.64% (G:8.83% B:0.24%)
63.36% (G:23.07% B:1.55%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.605...-0.578) - [64.1%]
Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 11/5 | eq: -0.595 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.45% (G:9.43% B:0.26%)
63.55% (G:21.70% B:1.42%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.610...-0.581) - [35.9%]
Duration: 6 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 13/7 | eq: -0.659 (-0.067) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.15% (G:9.38% B:0.29%)
64.85% (G:22.92% B:1.86%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.673...-0.645) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/16 | eq: -0.666 (-0.074) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.21% (G:8.16% B:0.24%)
64.79% (G:21.78% B:1.32%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.679...-0.653) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release