I like Sam's analysis. See also the variant below, where there's a play that leaves no blots, but it does not edge out the play that leaves a blot on the midpoint by much. In positions like this one, the midpoint is a point to be cleared rather than a point we want to hold.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 144 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 131
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--CbCBBa--bB-C---cb-bb--:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/9* 9/7 | eq: +0.352 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.79% (G:13.87% B:0.48%)
31.21% (G:6.63% B:0.17%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.344...+0.361) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/9* | eq: +0.248 (-0.104) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.78% (G:13.72% B:0.52%)
34.22% (G:9.06% B:0.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.239...+0.257) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 04 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/2 4/2 | eq: +0.198 (-0.154) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.13% (G:10.19% B:0.31%)
35.87% (G:7.44% B:0.18%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.191...+0.205) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 39 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 143 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 131
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--CbCBB-a-bB-C---cb-bb--:1:-1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 15/10* 10/7 | eq: +0.387 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 70.13% (G:14.20% B:0.46%)
29.87% (G:6.09% B:0.17%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.380...+0.394) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 57 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/10* 13/10 | eq: +0.365 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 69.70% (G:13.47% B:0.45%)
30.30% (G:6.22% B:0.18%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.356...+0.373) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 04 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release