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Rollout + variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 2 August 2024, at 5:11 a.m.

In Response To: This is the kind of cube decision that JOH is good at (Timothy Chow)

JOH nailed this one. As the variant shows, it's very difficult to get these sorts of problems exactly right, but with practice, one can at least get in the ballpark.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 57
7 point match
pip: 33
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EBC--a--------A----bbdcb-:2:1:1:00:1:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 81.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 81.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 18.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 18.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.632 +0.912
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.696 (-0.217)±0.001 (+0.695..+0.697)
Redouble/Take:+0.912±0.001 (+0.911..+0.914)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.088)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Gigantic
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 57
7 point match
pip: 32
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-EBC--a-------A-----bbdcb-:2:1:1:00:1:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 84.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 85.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 15.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 14.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.698 +1.031
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.752 (-0.248)±0.001 (+0.751..+0.753)
Redouble/Take:+1.031 (+0.031)±0.001 (+1.030..+1.032)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Gigantic
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 58.7 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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