Covering both home-board blots while leaving a shot can be the right idea if the alternative is sufficiently ugly.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 122 | | 9 point match | pip: 127 score: 7
Blue is Player 1 | |
| XGID=--AABbCBB---bB---b-dBbba--:0:0:1:63:7:0:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 63 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/2 6/3 | eq: -0.108 |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.19% (G:8.36% B:0.31%) 50.81% (G:7.37% B:0.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.117...-0.098) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/4 7/1 | eq: -0.151 (-0.043) |
| Player: Opponent: | 48.10% (G:7.69% B:0.11%) 51.90% (G:7.79% B:0.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.160...-0.141) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 62908879 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Duplicating 2's makes a difference but XG says it doesn't quite cut it here.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 120 | | 9 point match | pip: 125 score: 7
Blue is Player 1 | |
| XGID=-AA-BbCBB---bB---b-dBabb--:0:0:1:64:7:0:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/3 7/1 | eq: -0.104 |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.97% (G:8.48% B:0.28%) 50.03% (G:8.49% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.114...-0.094) - [95.8%] Duration: 2 minutes 48 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/4 8/2 | eq: -0.115 (-0.012) |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.43% (G:8.08% B:0.20%) 50.57% (G:8.05% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.124...-0.106) - [4.2%] Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 7/1 6/2 | eq: -0.135 (-0.031) |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.29% (G:9.92% B:0.30%) 50.71% (G:9.23% B:0.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.145...-0.126) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 62908879 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
The score doesn't make much difference.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 120 | Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver | pip: 125 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
| XGID=-AA-BbCBB---bB---b-dBabb--:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/3 7/1 | eq: -0.007 |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.89% (G:8.34% B:0.19%) 50.11% (G:9.34% B:0.34%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.014...+0.000) - [99.4%] Duration: 5 minutes 04 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/4 8/2 | eq: -0.020 (-0.013) |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.43% (G:7.92% B:0.16%) 50.57% (G:8.75% B:0.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.027...-0.013) - [0.5%] Duration: 5 minutes 01 second |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 7/1 6/2 | eq: -0.023 (-0.016) |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.23% (G:9.00% B:0.20%) 50.77% (G:9.17% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.031...-0.015) - [0.1%] Duration: 5 minutes 01 second |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 62908879 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release