XG 3-ply doesn't hit here, because the hit doesn't even make it through the move filter. The decision is pretty subtle, as the variant illustrates.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 94 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 91 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
| XGID=-ACB-BCB----b-b--aBbbbb-b-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/17* 17/15 | eq: +0.001 |
| Player: Opponent: | 48.66% (G:13.47% B:0.15%) 51.34% (G:24.15% B:1.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.004...+0.006) - [100.0%] Duration: 48.1 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/4 2/1 | eq: -0.135 (-0.137) |
| Player: Opponent: | 45.88% (G:2.73% B:0.04%) 54.12% (G:2.09% B:0.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.144...-0.127) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 17 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 62908879 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
Variant:

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 96 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 91 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
| XGID=-ACB-BCB----bb---aBbbbb-b-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/4 2/1 | eq: -0.008 |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.42% (G:3.31% B:0.03%) 50.58% (G:2.33% B:0.09%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.016...+0.001) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/16 18/17* | eq: -0.053 (-0.046) |
| Player: Opponent: | 46.74% (G:13.73% B:0.17%) 53.26% (G:26.34% B:1.33%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.064...-0.043) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 14 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 62908879 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release