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Rollout + variant: not just about gammons

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 14 August 2024, at 2:42 a.m.

In Response To: Rip all you can rip while the ripping is good (Timothy Chow)

The usual tradeoff in these types of positions is that ripping more checkers wins more gammons, while clearing from the rear wins more games. But if you compare this position with the variant, you can see that that's not the whole story. In the variant, ripping 3 checkers wins fewer extra gammons than in the original position, but it's a much more viable play according to the rollout. What gives?

Ripping 3 leaves Blue with an inflexible position, but we also have to consider White's timing. In the variant, she is more likely to have to break her board or run off her anchor soon, so ripping 3 carries less long-term risk.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
pip: 48
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bFDBBA-----------accbbb--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout16/Off 5/2(2)eq: +0.834
Player:
Opponent:		87.45% (G:12.75% B:0.38%)
12.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.830...+0.837) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9.1 seconds
2.Rollout16/Off 3/Off(2)eq: +0.775 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		79.89% (G:22.81% B:1.24%)
20.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.771...+0.778) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10.7 seconds
 
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 94
Unlimited Game
pip: 48
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bFDBBA------------bbcbbb-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout16/Off 5/2(2)eq: +0.863
Player:
Opponent:		90.40% (G:8.16% B:0.15%)
9.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.862...+0.864) - [76.8%]
Duration: 3 minutes 40 seconds
2.Rollout16/Off 3/Off(2)eq: +0.862 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		87.22% (G:16.01% B:0.52%)
12.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.861...+0.864) - [23.2%]
Duration: 7 minutes 14 seconds
 
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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