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Rollout + variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 15 August 2024, at 4:23 a.m.

In Response To: 5-away/2-away cube action (Timothy Chow)

For money, this position is at best a borderline double and a trivial take. And if we move White's outfield blot from her 9pt to her 11pt then XG says it's a take. Nevertheless, the rollout says that this is a massive pass ATS.





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 150
7 point match
pip: 158
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBB---B-Ba--cD--ad-da---C-:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 59.28% (G:34.75% B:2.91%) 59.64% (G:35.38% B:3.93%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 40.72% (G:11.21% B:1.42%) 40.36% (G:11.89% B:2.30%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.292 +1.210
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.719 (-0.281)±0.015 (+0.704..+0.733)
Double/Take:+1.210 (+0.210)±0.020 (+1.190..+1.230)
Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 28 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 150
Unlimited Game
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBB---B-Ba--cD--ad-da---C-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 59.20% (G:35.22% B:2.82%) 59.19% (G:35.78% B:3.30%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 40.80% (G:11.33% B:0.65%) 40.81% (G:11.54% B:0.75%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.444 +0.904
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.570 (-0.010)±0.014 (+0.555..+0.584)
Double/Take:+0.579±0.021 (+0.558..+0.600)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.421)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:76.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 152
7 point match
pip: 158
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBB---B-Ba--cDa--d-da---C-:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 56.69% (G:32.18% B:2.55%) 56.78% (G:32.29% B:3.01%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 43.31% (G:11.47% B:1.22%) 43.22% (G:11.83% B:1.59%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.211 +0.945
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.582 (-0.363)±0.012 (+0.570..+0.593)
Double/Take:+0.945±0.018 (+0.927..+0.962)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.055)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62908879
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 39 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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